Despite the fact that inflation showed a slight decelerationhe mass consumption contracted in May. This was revealed by a private study, which also detailed a marked gap between the different sales channels: while the large chains continue to grow, local businesses deepen their contraction.
“According to what we thought could happen, the evolution of retail sales had a setback compared to the same month of 2022”, they pointed out from the consultancy Scentia, in whose report they detailed that consumption showed a drop of 3.1% year-on-year in May, to accumulate a retraction of 1% in the first five months of 2023 compared to the same period last year.
“The difference in behavior between channels continues to be very noticeable, given that Supermarkets fell 12.4% and Supermarkets remained positive (+7.8%), although with a slight slowdown”, the study detailed, in which it was underlined: “The difference from what happened in Self-Services in the reported areas is very marked, given that in AMBA the fall is very noticeable. On the other hand, in Supermarkets the situation is more balanced”.
Indeed, according to the data released by Scentia, independent supermarkets accumulate a 9.2% drop so far this year throughout the country, while in the AMBA, the retraction is even more marked: it reaches 15.5%.
On the other hand, the big chains, add up to an overall improvement of 8.4% in the first five months of the yearwith similar evolutions both in the AMBA and in the interior of the country.
This is explained above all by the price gap between large stores and local self-services, as a result of the different programs of the Government: in fact, private projections estimate that this difference would stretch to 30 points this year.
It is that, beyond the slowdown of May, the food item increased 49.4% in the first five months of the year, to be 7 pp above the general level of inflation. Within this framework, from the consultancy Ecolatina they highlighted that, despite the moderation of the item, “Mass consumer products continued to show increasing speed: they climbed 9.2%, accelerating for the fourth consecutive month.”
In this context, the Scentia report revealed that during May only the baskets of “alcoholic drinks” (1.8%), “non-alcoholic drinks” (2.6%) and “impulsive” (5%) decreased. On the contrary, “Food” fell 2.7%; “breakfast and snack”, 7.5%; “perishable and cold”, 7%; “clothes and household cleaning”, 5.1% and “hygiene and cosmetics”, 1.7%.
projections
After the May contraction, projections for the future are not very encouraging. At least, this is how Osvaldo del Río, director of Scentia, estimated it: “Last year, mass consumption managed to recover a little. This year, it will surely lose what it recovered last year: I estimate a drop between 1 and 3%”.
“The second semester will be more complicated in terms of figures, because it will be compared with higher bases; especially in supermarkets, which was the channel that had been pulling positively: I don’t think it’s going to drop in supermarkets, but it’s going to start to slow down a bit,” said Del Rio, who in that sense remarked: “If the price difference is maintained, which today is very high, between the supermarket channel and the rest of the channels, the super will continue to give positive results, while the rest of the channels will continue in negative territory”.
Along the same lines, Damián Di Pace, director of the Focus Market consultancy, analyzed: “I do not think that a recovery of mass consumption is in the future. It may be seasonally, due to the Christmas bonus, that it presents a slight improvement in these months, but the loss of purchasing power continues to be evident in basic basket products, which had double-digit increases in May (such as rice, yerba, broths, sugar )”.
Source: Ambito
