Today’s will be the last major market survey before 14-N, with which Argentines will go to the polls for the legislative elections in the middle of the president’s term. Alberto Fernandez.
Analysts lowered their accumulated inflation projections for 2021 and the price of the dollar for the end of December, while increasing their forecast for an economic rebound for this year. according to the previous REM. By 2022, instead, specialists foresee a higher CPI than projected a month ago.
At the end of September 2021, market analysts projected that retail inflation for 2021 will be 48.2% year-on-year (yoy), 0.2 percentage points (pp) below the previous survey.
Who best predicted this variable for the short term (TOP-10) they expect an average inflation of 48.6% yoy (0.2 pp below the previous survey). In addition, REM participants raised the inflation forecast for 2022 to 46.0% yoy (+2.9 pp compared to the previous REM).
For August 2021, the median of the estimates of those who participated in the REM survey suggested a monthly inflation of 2.8%, while the data observed in that month turned out to be 2.5%. For September 2021, the median of the estimates of the current survey was 2.8% per month, as was the average of the TOP-10 of the best predictors of inflation.
PBI
Those who participate in REM expect a growth in the Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2021 of 7.6% (+0.4 pp compared to the previous survey), after registering in 2020 a fall of 9.9% yoy
The TOP-10 of those who best predicted economic growth suggests an increase in GDP for 2021 on average of 7.8% (+0.5 pp compared to the previous survey).
Regarding the seasonally adjusted quarterly variation of GDP, the estimate for the third quarter of the year was corrected upwards with an estimated rise of 1.7%, which was 0.4 pp higher than in the previous survey. The growth estimate corresponding to the fourth quarter of the year fell slightly by 0.1 pp from 0.6% to 0.5%. Meanwhile, REM participants suggest a growth of 0.4% to stop the first quarter of next year.
Dollar
REM analysts they adjusted down their monthly projections of the nominal exchange rate and expect it to reach $ 105 per dollar in December 2021, contemplating it to reach $ 155.9 per dollar by the end of 2022.
Those who more accurately forecast this variable with short-term horizons project that the average nominal exchange rate for the end of December 2021 will reach $ 105.2.
Badlar rate
By October 2021, those who participate in the REM they forecast a BADLAR rate for private banks of 34.12% similar to that registered in September (34.16%).
There is a stable trend in the monthly forecasts until the end of the year, with the rate rising to 34.36%.
Meanwhile, those who best forecasted the interest rate for the short term expect, on average, that it will be at 34.42% by the end of 2021.
Foreign trade
Regarding the value of exports (FOB), those who participate in the REM estimate that by 2021 they would amount to US $ 73,447 million, increasing by US $ 4,063 million compared to the last REM and US $ 18,563 million higher than that registered in 2020 (u $ s54,884 million). The and the 10 best forecasters projected a higher value of exports, around US $ 74,293 million.
Meanwhile, the value of imports (CIF) for 2021 would be US $ 59,817 million, that is, US $ 2,633 million above the forecast of the previous survey and US $ 17,461 million higher than the data evidenced in the last year (US $ 42,356 million). The members of the TOP-10 estimated a higher value of annual imports: u $ s60,320 million.
Unemployment
On the other hand, the projection provided by analysts for open unemployment for the third quarter of 2021 would be 9.9% of the EAP.
For the fourth quarter of 2021, the median of the forecasts rises to 10.1%, a value that would be reduced in the first quarter of 2022 to 10.0%. The members of the TOP-10 also estimated the expected record for the last quarter of 2021 at 10.1%.
Fiscal deficit
Finally, the projection of the primary fiscal deficit of the Non-Financial National Public Sector (NFPS) carried out by economic consultants for 2021 was raised with respect to the previous survey by $ 68.6 billion to $ 1,568.6 billion, after a deficit had been recorded. of $ 1,750.0 billion in 2020.
Likewise, analysts forecast a deficit of $ 1,800.0 billion for 2022. The average of the 10 most accurate forecasters in the past for this variable indicates a projected deficit of $ 1,468.7 billion for 2021 .
Source From: Ambito
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