It should be remembered that for September the private sector had forecast a price increase of 2.8%, well below the 3.5% that INDEC finally ended up reporting officially.
In this context, the market corrected its estimates for the month of October from 2.8% to 3.2%. Additionally, it expects an average increase of 3% for November and 3.3% for December.
Regarding economic activity, REM participants improved their expectations for 2021 by 0.7 points; now they expect a GDP 8.3% higher than in 2020.
The economic growth rate for the third quarter of the year was modified upwards with an estimated rise of 2.6% compared to the second quarter, 0.9 points higher in relation to the previous survey. The estimate for the fourth quarter increased 0.1 points to 0.6%.
In exchange, the “gurus” did not change their projections, taking into account the firmness with which the BCRA maintains its exchange rate adjustment policy in coordination with the Government’s intention to calm pressure on prices. Therefore, if the forecasts are fulfilled, the official wholesale dollar would end at $ 105.10, which would imply an annual devaluation rate of just 27.1%.
By 2022, the market expects the pressures on the main macroeconomic variables to continue: it estimates inflation of 48.9% and an adjustment of 51.3% in the exchange rate.
Source From: Ambito
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