The Austral University published his report AG BAROMETER corresponding to May of this year, which under the title: “Grower Confidence Improves Driven by Future Conditions Index that counteracts the present bad situation.” The Confidence Index of the agricultural producers in May 2023 shows an improvement compared to the measurement of March 2023with an increase of 21% (84 vs. 69).
This improvement is mainly due to Future Expectations Indexwhich reaches a value of 120, one of the tallest in the series. An index above 100 as of July 2019. In this sense, the AG BAROMETER AUSTRAL confirms that “in relation to the next 12 months, there is a significant improvement in the expectations of the financial situation of the producers (167 vs. 93 in March), implying that the worst is over and a return to normality is on the way.” .
Agro: the other side of the report
On the other hand, the Present Conditions Index presents a deterioration compared to the previous measurement March 2023 (31 vs. 35). This fall is even more pronounced compared to May 2022 (31 in May 2023 vs. 97 in May 2022).
The dispersion between the Index of Future Expectations and the Index of Present Conditions indicates that a difficult year is being left behind, with events such as the drought that affected the 2022/23 Campaign and represented a steep drop in revenue.
The current financial situation of the producers shows a slight improvement compared to the March measurementbut 69% of them maintain that their economic situation is worse than in previous years.
Most of the producers consider that It is not a good time to invest in fixed assets, with 85% expressing this opinion. In this context, the Investment Opportunity Index is the lowest in history.
Expectations regarding the financial situation of producers in the next 12 months have improved significantly (167 vs. 93 in March), indicating a recovery and a return to normality.
The biggest challenges and concerns for the next 12 months are the weather and political uncertainty, closely followed by the unavailability of financing and high interest rates. For the second semester, an incredible increase of 23% is registered in the confidence index of agricultural producers.
The May report of this year concludes that the gap between current conditions and future expectations seems to indicate that one of the most difficult years is being left behind of recent history. events like the drought that affected the 2022/23 Campaign (resulting in a loss of more than 50 million tons in the production of the main crops) and a drop of about US$18.9 billion in income that affected all participants in the production chains they have left their mark.
Source: Ambito
