Consultants estimate a slowdown in the inflation June motivated, among other factors, by a lower rise in the food. And, within this item, a lower variation in the price of the meat. A trend that, as projected from the sector, could continue in the coming months.
According to the CPI measured by the Ecolatina consultancy for Greater Buenos Aires, inflation “moderated its speed” in June to 7.2% (1.5 pp below the previous month’s record). In that sense, from the firm highlighted a “lower growth in fresh products such as Beef (2.6%), a drop in Chicken (-0.5%) and in Fruit, which slowed to 2.5% per month.
Along the same lines, the consultancy C&T pointed out that in food and beverages, “the item with the greatest weightthere was a significant slowdown in the first fortnight of the month due to the drop in vegetables and the lower increase in meats”.
These smaller increases in meat prices are consistent with a change in the price of real estate that lags behind general inflation. In fact, in June, the average price of a live kilo rose only 2%as reported by the Meat Industry and Commerce Chamber (CICCRA).
“The real loss compared to last year is 30%. Today the farm, if we adjust it for inflation, is worth 30% less than a year ago,” Miguel Schiariti, director of CICCRA, explained to Ámbito, who added that strong jumps in the prices of beef on the counter are not expected in the short term: “These values will be maintained until it rains. When it rains, some 45 or 60 days later, there will be a very strong price increase. go up which, we estimate, will be about 40% of the current nominal value and that it will occur at the end of september or october”.
If this trend continues, it would mean less pressure for the food basket indicators and would contribute to a certain deceleration in inflation levels.
This “cheapening” in terms real of the price of meat propitiated, also, a recovery in consumption levels. “It is possible that domestic consumption will continue to increase, and that it will be reflected in the June data,” Schiaritti explained.
In fact, in May, the moving average of the last twelve months of per capita consumption of beef was 50.4 kg/year, which implies an annual increase of 4.7%. Thus, it was above the average of 2022 (48.2 kg/year) and 2021 (48.9 kg/year).
Meat: exports on the rise
CICCRA also reported that in May there was a record in the volume of meat exported for that month and it was ranked as the third highest in history (behind November 2020 and October 2019). On the contrary, the value of the exported ton fell 7.1%.
In May, the certified total was equivalent to 65.4 thousand tons of product weight (tn pp) and 91.7 thousand tons of bone-in beef (tn r/c/h). In year-on-year terms they registered an increase of 13.4% and 12.1%, respectively.
As in the previous months, the higher volume of beef exported could be explained by the increasing shipments to China. In the monthly comparison, sales to the Netherlands and Chile also increased, which were offset by the decrease in shipments to the other main destinations. Specifically, 83.9% of the total was exported to China and represented 68.8% of the total invoiced.
However, due to the drop in prices, the invoicing for beef exports registered a fall of 20.4% in the interannual comparison. In the first five months of the year, despite the fact that shipments grew by 12% compared to the same period in 2022, billing dropped 26.5%.
Source: Ambito
