Foreign trade
On Wednesday, INDEC will report the results of prices and quantities of foreign trade for the third quarter of 2021, which is also likely to have positive numbers. The last figure that was released on the subject was given showed positive numbers in September where the exports grew 59.8% y-o-y (totaled USD 7,553 million), and the imports, 42.6% (to USD 5,886 million). However, for the rest of the year, analysts expect more limited results in the trade balance due to the good numbers of the previous three months. In the nine months of 2021, exports reached USD 58,276 million and imports, USD 45,954 million, with a positive trade balance of 12,322 million of dollars.
Inflation
On Thursday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figure for October 2020 will be released. An advance was released on Friday with the publication of the Market Expectations Survey (REM) carried out by the Central Bank (BCRA ). The market adjusted its expectations upwards in October and now foresees that prices will accumulate an increase of more than 50% in 2021. The figure increased by 2.1 percentage points compared to the REM for September.
It should be remembered that for September the private sector had forecast a price increase of 2.8%, well below the 3.5% that INDEC finally ended up reporting officially. In this context, the market corrected its estimates for the month of October from 2.8% to 3.2%. Additionally, it expects an average increase of 3% for November and 3.3% for December. Private analysts also marked an inflation close to 3% in October since it responds to the first two weeks of the month where there was an accelerated increase from the previous ones. Fact that later led to the price freeze on October 20.
Wages
The National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) will release the Salary Index for October on Friday and the focus will be on whether the gap with inflation widens or narrows. This indicator takes into account private, public and unregistered wages. The latest INDEC figure showed an increase of 3.2% during August, and exceeded the 2.5% inflation rate in that month. The agency specified that the rise of 3.2% in August was driven by a rise in private sector wages recorded, in the public sector and private sector income not registered. INDEC data is expected to show an increase in wages compared to inflation in October.
Source From: Ambito
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