This Thursday the 13th the data of inflation of June. And, as can be seen from different surveys private, it would be observed a slowdown in CPI increments for the second month in a row.
By case, according to REM which was published last week central bankthe consultancies surveyed estimated an inflation of 7.3% for the sixth month of the year, a lower figure than the 7.8% of May and which, in fact, would be the lowest variation since February. Even the indexes elaborated by some firms presented a variation of 6.7%.
This moderation in retail prices is associated, according to analysts, to a seasonal issue, to a lower increase in those regulated and to a slighter increase in food.
By case, from the consultant GCL indicated that their survey of food prices “marked a slowdown in the month, hovering around increases of around 6% per month, which would contribute a little more than 1.5 pp of inflation to the CPI”. “On the other hand, increases in regulated prices such as transport, fuel, communications and schools would contribute almost 2 pp to the CPI”, they remarked from the firm, and concluded: “Likewise, parallel dollars operated relatively stable during June, which helps to moderate the rate of price increase. We estimate inflation around 7% per month for Junewhich in annual terms would mean a rise of 117%”.
Meanwhile, the CPI prepared by the consultancy orlando ferreres for the GBA evidenced an increase of 7.2% monthly in June. “Regarding the main items, ‘Recreation’ and ‘Clothing’ led the increases for the month, registering monthly increases of 13.3% and 10.1% respectively, followed by Housing, which presented a variation of 9.1%” they pointed out.
Along the same lines, the GBA CPI for ecolatin He moderated his speed to settle in 7.2% monthly (1.5 pp below the May record). “Thus, it sustained the slowdown verified both in the second half of May and in the first half of June,” they explained from the consultant.
“The moderation was made possible by smaller increases in Regulated and in Foodwhich corresponds in part to the 1.6 pp deceleration of Core inflation (+6.8%), which showed the smallest increase since January (+5.2%)”, they added from the firm.
Some consultancies, in fact, registered a variation due to below 7% in your measurements. This is the case of the CPI, which measures the Freedom and Progress Foundationwhich increased 6.8% in June (in May, the indicator prepared by the firm reflected inflation of 9.1%). “This result would mark, for the second consecutive month, a slowdown in the rate of variation of the consumer price index,” they detailed.
For its part, the survey of retail prices of the consultancy C&T for the GBA had an increase of 6.7% monthly in June, “below the 8.7% in May but above the 5.3% in June 2022”. “The moderation was generalized in the items, although those of housing, and food and beverages were particularly relevant”, they explained.
What is expected for July
Beyond the new moderation in inflation levels estimated for June, a similar trend would continue during July. This is how the consultant projected it ecolatin: “After five months of frank acceleration, the monthly rate of inflation managed to stop its escalation, running away from the latent risk of a spiralization. However, the nominal increase remains at high levels: monthly inflation of 7% for 12 months would represent an increase of 125% in 12 months”.
In that scenario, they detailed: “For July we estimate a figure similar to that of June. The increases in prepaid payments (+8.5%) will punctually impact the month; domestic service (+6%); internet, cable and telephony (+4.5%); fuels (+4%); and private schools.
“Starting from a inertia that has been consolidating at higher levels (increasing indexation, shortening of contract terms), the inflationary process continues to be unstable in the face of the absence of anchors, the distortion of relative prices and the lack of confidence to coordinate expectations in the midst of the uncertainty inherent to the electoral transition”, it was indicated.
For now, according to the survey of Food and drinks prepared by LCG, in the first week of the month there was a “weekly increase of 0.2%, slightly accelerating by 0.1 pp compared to the previous week”. “Average monthly inflation stands at 5.1% and accumulates a drop of 3.8 pp compared to the peak registered at the beginning of May”they explained.
In this sense, the REM estimated inflation of 7.6% for July.
Source: Ambito
