After the last two updates of the returns made by the Central Bank (BCRA) and taking into account the official and private expectations for the data of inflationdeposits in pesos at fixed term finally managed to guarantee positive rates with respect to the evolution of prices. However, the volume of positions failed to pick up at the start of July. Why is this happening and how does the market read it?
Last month, the performance of the fixed term was 8% against 7.8% of inflation, which left her slightly positive. And this month, Miguel Angel Pesceowner of Central Bank (BCRA)stated to Ambit It will be necessary to see what happens in the next few days with the inflation data for June to define how the rate policy continues. For now, it would remain unchanged taking into account the inflationary expectation. “I think that we will have positive news this month”Pesce said.
Less attractive due to performance and the economic-political context
The Economist Frederick Glustein raised that “In the current political, economic and pre-electoral context, investors can make a more detailed review of investments and see that more flexibility is required, not having funds without mobilizing for 30 days.”
For this reason, he highlighted alternatives such as Common Investment Funds (FCI)which allow greater entry and exit with profitability, like the opportunities in paper, both bonds and stocks. “It is probable that part of the companies have decided to also withdraw part of those resources to pay Christmas bonuses and bonds“, he pointed.
The founder of Investment Advisor, Alexander Bianchistated that the profitability of the fixed term “has a negative rate of almost 20 points”, since the inflation expectations surveyed by the Survey of Market Expectations of the Central Bank (BCRA) for the next 12 months, stands at 161.4% per year, while the rate Annual effective of a fixed term stands at 141.9%. For this reason, “the attraction is limited, since it generates a nominal illusion, but in a year one would end up buying less goods than making a fixed term in pesos.”
In turn, he highlighted investors oriented towards the carry tradeare taking advantage of the relative calm that financial dollars have been showing in recent months, although “It is a risky business, since achieving that timing It’s close to impossible”.
For his part, the economist Gustavo Ber said “Banks are less incentivized to pay a higher rate”and in this sense he highlighted that the CER bondswhich track the price index and offer extra yield, are of greater interest to investors oriented towards the carry trade.
“The fixed-term yield should continue running below inflation, for which reason savers would continue to favor CER exhibition for its profitability, as well as the liquidity and the flexibility that they offer, in the current political-economic context”held.
Source: Ambito
