According to private estimates, in the first of the two calls for bids in July, the government has to raise funds to cover commitments for $601,358 million over a total of $1.1 billion for the entire month.
In principle, the estimation of the team that leads Eduardo Setti in the Ministry of Finance is that a level of net financing as high as that obtained during June will not be repeated. It’s going to be a tender “quieter” than the previous two, so it is expected that the high level of net financing in June will not be repeated.
In June, after the debt swap by which maturities were reduced from $7.4 trillion to $4 trillion, the Palacio de Hacienda was able to face commitments for 1.2 trillion and achieve a renewal rate of 149%. It managed to add $575,000 million above maturities. So far this year, he managed to accumulate $1.8 billion in net.
According to the stock company, Personal Portfolio Investments (PPI), 99% of maturing holdings are held by private investors. In this context, it is expected that the government will once again have the same device that it has been using in recent months to obtain pesos from the market. It would be an offer of titles in which indexed bonds predominate, either by inflation or by dollar, or combined.
On July 18, a LECER for approximately $528,000 million expires, according to data from the Congressional Budget Office (OPC). Then there are commitments from investors who did not enter the June swap, because they have a short-term investor profile. It is worth remembering that the conversion operation sought to transfer as much debt as possible by 2024 and 2025. The average maturity went from 3.5 months to 9.5. For funds called “money market” that operate in very short terms, the bills offered were not attractive. So they did not enter and seek to continue renewing for three months.
In this way, what is becoming private now would correspond to the common fundswhile the banks have been postponing or taking positions in bonds that can be used to integrate reserve requirements.
The key date now are the primary elections in August. It was a very clear limit that the market had imposed and that Economy, in negotiations with banks and appealing to the participation of the Central Bank providing liquidity to public bodies, has been overcoming. The new “wall” of maturities is now in 2024 and 2025, already within the next term.
After the first call, the government will be ahead on July 26 of the payment of a BONCER 2023 for $10,065 million; and on July 31 maturities for $185,230 million of a Dual bond (TDL23); a Linked Dollar BONTE (T2V3), for $294,978 million and LEDES (S31L3) for $61,330 million.
Source: Ambito
