The surplus of the trade balance of goods will double between 2024 and 2030, reaching a surplus close to US$41.8 billionaccording to a set of projections based on sectoral reports carried out by the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) on the dynamics of foreign trade in the coming years
So, the surplus trade balance of goods in the country will go from representing 3.9% of GDP in 2024 to reaching a level of 5.2% in 2030indicated the official statement.
In this sense, they highlight that total exports will reach almost US$144 billion in 2030, “with notable growth in fuels,” especially crude oil of unconventional origin.
In addition, the new transport infrastructure will contribute to substituting imports and unfolding the export potential.
Thus, Total fuel exports will go from US$10.4 billion in 2024 to US$36.7 billion in 2030, added official sources.
On the other hand, the mining sector will also contribute to this growth process with the completion of lithium, gold and silver exploitation projects, where total mining exports “will go from US$6.1 billion in 2024 to US$15.6 billion in 2030 “said the National Bank.
As for the agricultural sectorthey remark that, “once the effects of the drought have been overcome, it will return to its usual level”, which is around US$35.4 billion.
While the rest of the exports of goods, promoted by the “Argentina Productiva 2023” Plan, will increase from US$37.7 billion to US$54.5 billion between 2024 and 2030.
Thus, the automotive and petrochemical sectors are the items that will contribute the most to this export growth.
With respect to the rest of the exporting sectors, the BCRA projections indicate that it is expected that “from the infrastructure works underway and planned for the energy sector imports will be substituted”, mainly gas, which will reduce foreign purchases of fuels.
Finally, the rest of the imports of goods will be driven by the growth of the Product that will expand at an annual average rate of 4.6%.
“Total imports of goods in the economy will reach approximately US$ 102,000 million, on a growing path in terms of GDP to represent 12.6%, compared to 10.4% in the pre-pandemic,” the statement concluded.
Source: Ambito
