In a month in which a new moderation was observed in the data for inflationhe massive consume recovered in June. This is clear from a private survey, which also shows a certain improvement in local channels that, although they continue in negative territory, slowed down their fall.
According to the report prepared by the consultant Scentiain June mass consumption grew 1.3% year-on-year, after chaining two consecutive falls (0.3% in April and 3.1% in May). In that scenario, the accumulated in the first six months of the year is negative: -0.6%.
“The behavior between channels continues to be different, since Supermarkets show negative variations and Supermarkets maintain positivity”, they explained from the firm, and detailed: “Something interesting is the slowdown in the drop in Self-services, this time -3% (In May, the contraction of this channel had been 12.4%) and with the difference already seen in previous months between the AMBA and Interior (-15.9% and +3.9% respectively)”.
The relative “improvement” in consumption in local businesses occurred simultaneously with the launch of the program at the beginning of June “Fair Neighborhood Prices”. In this sense, Fernando Savore, president of the Federation of Grocers of the Province of Buenos Aires (FABA), highlighted that having the possibility of offering products at a more competitive price helped drive demand: “Among the 100 products that are part of the program, there are 10 or 12 that are ‘stars’, such as oil or rice, which with good prices attracts, makes the client come looking for them. As long as you can get good prices, people will come. When they give us tools, we make use of them, because we need them. That is why we fight for Fair Prices to reach our businesses”.
In any case, generally supermarkets accumulate a fall of 8% in the first six months of the year. Although with a marked difference between regions: while in the AMBA a contraction of 15.6% was observed, in the Interior a growth of 4.2% was registered.
“The supermarkets continue with positive trend which slows down as in May, but what happened in the geographical areas is even, unlike the other channel”, detailed the Scentia study. In the accumulated annual, the large chains grow 8%.
Meanwhile, when analyzing the evolution of the different product divisions, the report indicated that the “Food” item grew 1.9% in all surfaces, while “perishables and cold” items climbed 2.7%; “hygiene and cosmetics” 2.4%; “alcoholic drinks” 8.3%, “non-alcoholic drinks” 7.6% and “impulsive” 6%. On the contrary, the categories “breakfast and snacks” (-3.4%) and “clothes and household cleaning” (-3.2%) fell.
Finally, the report remarked that “the weighted average price continues to accelerate and is already close to 120% year-on-year.” In this sense, it is above the general level of inflation, which in June reached 115.6%.
projections
Beyond the deceleration shown by inflation in recent months, and the consequent recovery in consumption levels, forward-looking private projections point to a new upward path. Within this framework, from Fundación Capital they highlighted days ago that the different price agreements can help moderate the rise in the CPI in July.
“The authorities once again bet on the relaunch of different price agreementswhere the currency of exchange for companies is both the approval of SIRAs to import, and the participation in the financing program Ahora 12″, they detailed from the firm, and added: “It was agreed to freeze the prices of different durable goods , such as household appliances, clothing, electronics, bicycles and motorcycles, which together represent 13.8% of the CPI basket. In addition, for mass consumption products, the guideline of maximum monthly increase of 5% was maintained, where food and beverages comprise 23.4% and personal care around 3%”.
For their part, from Ecolatina they point out that, in the coming months, “starting from a inertia that has been consolidating at higher levels, the inflationary process will continue to be unstable in the face of the absence of anchors, the distortion of relative prices and the lack of confidence to coordinate expectations amid the uncertainty of the electoral transition”.
Source: Ambito
