When the second call for bids of the month, next Thursday the 27th, the doubts about the continuity of the relationship between Argentina and the organization will already be cleared up, although the Government is going to take its time to prepare the new proposal. There are expirations for a few $600,000 million, still with high private participation. Details are likely to be known the day before.
As I had pointed out Scope, inflation stability around 7% in the next three months that the market is forecasting drove a demand for short fixed rate instruments that they can take advantage of the rise in prices. That is why in the Ministry of Finance it is foreseen continue to include short-term LEDS, which, together with the LELITES, cover the expectations of investors, such as Mutual Funds, which, due to their composition of the client portfolio, cannot go towards long instruments. To this will be added some bonuses shorter linked dollar.
The bonuses for 2024 and 2025 will continue to appear, but for Economy officials the reality is that everything that had to happen for that long term has already happened. The banks could add something more, but not much more.
After the last call of July, in August there are maturities for about $733,000 million, according to data from the Congressional Budget Office (OPC). They correspond to two CER-adjustable titles, issued in 2023. And what will continue to happen until December is that there will remain maturities of bonds that were placed this year where investors such as Mutual Funds appear.
On the other hand, the other force that has been acting on the market is the potential risk of restructuring the debt in pesos during the next government, which, although it gradually receded, was not completely eliminated.
The operators are still waiting for the candidacies for the presidential elections this year to be resolved in the PASO and they will look for more details about the future. Meanwhile, many feel more comfortable in the short term.
According to poses Walter Moralespresident and strategist of Wise Capital, the feared forced reprofiling believes that the next government “will not do it”, because it foresees that “From April 2024 there will be a tailwind” for the Argentine economy.
“As long as the main presidential candidates do not allow us to think about what they are going to do, it is key to defend assets instead of looking at profitability, and for that the most convenient thing is to invest in Bonds in Pesos that mature this year. The Lecers for September, October and November are positive compared to inflation, ”he points out.
Source: Ambito
