It would be, on the one hand, a special exchange rate for importers and another for exporters of the field, but that does not include soybeans. This responds to the fact that, although the current context does not allow for strong progress with this type of substantive measures suggested by the international organization because the reserve situation is delicate and, given the electoral context, in which Argentine politics is preparing for a government transition, it seeks to show news in this regard.
That is why, as mentioned by Ambit the economist Federico Glustein, “yesterday afternoon a rumor began to spread special dollar for importers that would be located in the $350on the one hand, and the possible arrival of a new exchange rate differentiated for exporters around the same price”.
Although it is a measure that goes against the spirit of unify the exchange rate, it is known that there is no margin to advance in this direction at this time. For this reason, Glustein considers that the Government has to take measures to motorize the income of foreign currency, on the one hand, and that it advance, post-PASO, with other types of announcements.
New importing dollar: a safe conduct
And it is that the Government has been resisting the request of the market and the supposed IMF request to go to a devaluation strong, but it has been taking reiterated measures that seek to correct the problems that this decision generates, among which, the main one is the mismatch between the price of exports and imports.
On the one hand, for importers, it is expected that, through the imposition of a new tax for importers (many speak of a Country tax for the sector) something like a tax devaluation is implemented.
Thus, as Ámbito had anticipated a few months ago, the economist and director of Eco Go, Sebastián Menescaldi, “it is likely that a new tax for imports”.
“I am counting on there being a agreement with the IMF and, within this framework, I consider that it was to be expected that this type of measure would be taken because the interest of the Government is strongly positioned in devaluing. That is why it has been taking this type of ad-hoc devaluations,” explains Romano Group economist Salvador Vitelli in this regard.
In the words of Camilo Tiscornia, director of CyT Asesores Económicos, “it is an additional differentiated exchange rate, a kind of dropper devaluation.”
On the other hand, that would be combined with a crawling-peg acceleration”, hand in hand with the announcement of a new dollar for grain exporters. In fact, the official wholesale exchange rate devalued 7.25% in June and this reflects an acceleration in the rate of daily depreciations above 6% of inflation for the month.
That would come combined with a differentiated dollar for grain exporters, which, according to a source anticipates, “would be focused on corn, barley, sorghum and sunflower and would be set at around $340.”
Help for the BCRA
Thus, on the one hand, the decision of a new exchange rate for the fieldbut on the other, it would implement what Menescaldi describes as “a fiscal devaluation, which serves as a safe conduit for devaluation. And it is that he explains that” it is not the same as depreciating the currency because it is equivalent to a tax benefit and it also has an effect on prices.
And it is that, as Vitelli points out, the arrival of a dollar for importers, will undoubtedly make purchases abroad more expensive and that, he points out, will be an issue to be solved for the sector. “I think that importers have taken a lot of coverage for dollar linked, for example, and this would leave them very uncovered because the exchange rate is very expensive. For example, if an operator took coverage for US$1,000 and the tax is of 30%, the expense is increased up to US$1,300 and that leaves him exposed,” he warns.
In a similar sense, Di Stefano points out that “it is a measure with an inflationary effect and that, probably, will take away margins to the exporter“, given that many of the products that Argentina sells abroad are produced with imported inputs.
Differentiated dollar: compensation for exporters
Although that could be offset by a differentiated dollar for exporters, that compensation might not be enough. “It is a disguised devaluation, which, on the one hand, seeks to collect more for the State with the tax on importers. But, on the other hand, it has to give an improvement to the exporter to improve the margin,” he details.
Thus, although it could have collateral effects, Menescaldi points out that this would be the intermediate solution, in line with what can be done in the economy today and also given the political restrictions that exist to achieve a kind of exchange rate equalization”, he points out in this regard.
It happens that reserves have been falling sharply and measures must be taken to control this trend. “Right now, they’re around $25 billion and they’re close to a bottom line,” he says. And he considers that this strategy of a new differentiated dollar for importers is a corrective measure, within the existing possibilities given the restrictions imposed by the IMF and the economy to the Government.
This is a tax devaluation that will make imports more expensive. I think that importers have taken a lot of hedging per linked dollar and this would leave them very uncovered because they are very expensive. For example, if a importer He took coverage for US$1,000 and the tax is 30%, the expense is more expensive to US$1,300 and that leaves him exposed.
Ticsornia coincides in the inflationary risks of the measure and mentions that we will have to be attentive to what is finally resolved to do. The modality agreed upon as a result would undoubtedly be agreed with the different sectors. And, on the other hand, the arrival of the new dollar for exports it will require an adjustment of the agricultural dollar, which is currently in force for the regional economies and would be brought to approximately $350.
Source: Ambito
