Can it slow down to 5%?

Those with the lowest price variation projected for the month of July, based on the data collected in the first 15 days of the month, they place it between 6.2% and 6.6%.

On the one hand, for the consultant ecolatin, which measured the increase in prices in the first half of July, monthly inflation for this month would stand at 6.2%, thus rising 0.2 pp compared to June. This is because there is “a lower fresh food growthadded to the fact that in July a fewer Regulated category increases than in the previous two months,” they explained.

“Regarding the categories, the rise was led by the seasonalwhere there was an acceleration in Tourism (+27.9%), product of a seasonal rise due to the winter break, which was moderated by the drop in Fruit and lower growth in Dress abroad”, highlights the report of this consultancy.

In turn, the report adds that “the chapter of Food and drinks (+5.3%) slowed down 1.6 pp compared to the first half of June, mainly due to lower growth in Meats (+1.6%) and a drop in Fruit (-0.5%)”. While the products of Massive consume -packaged- climbed 6.5%showing a slowdown of 0.4 pp compared to June 1Q.

For his part, eco go estimates a variation of 6.6% for July. As explained by his economist rocio bisang to Ambitfrom the consultant “We do not believe that the slowdown is a trend that will continue in the coming months since, in the last 60 days, we saw a deceleration driven mainly by the price of food, where meats, fruits and vegetables played in favor”. But he warns that it is likely that, going forward, the trend will be reversed.

“Another contributing factor was that the parallel dollars remained relatively stable, and there were no large weight measures that had an impact on prices. But the macro issues were not resolved and, as time goes by, they worsenTherefore, the economy is vulnerable to any minimal change in expectations generating a new jump in inflation,” he concludes.

On the other hand, Claudio Caprarulo, director of analytics, indicates that its projection of the CPI is 6.9%. “We expect the slowdown to reverse, mainly due to the price of seasonal goods, such as fruits and vegetables, a factor that was key to the decline in May and June,” he says. “We expect the slowdown to reverse, mainly due to the price of seasonal goods, such as fruits and vegetables, a factor that was key to the decline in May and June,” he said.

While, Maria Castiglioni, director of C&T Associates, assures that, from the consultancy, they are measuring the price variation every week, and that for July “is giving 7.2%”.

“As we had been anticipating, the tourism for the winter holidays and the prepaid increases, rates and colleges. Although, also, the rise in food and drinkswhich started the month of July calmer compared to June, but which, in this last week, showed strong acceleration,” Castiglioni told this outlet.

Although in the following months, the floor estimated by C&T Asociados continues to be 7%, “as long as the Government continues to maintain this exchange system of crawling peg around 7% and the dollar does not skyrocket or there is a run on the road”.

In this sense, Castiglioni clarifies that there are possibilities that these scenarios occur due to the “shortage of reserves of the Central Bank (BCRA), the monetary expansion that there was in this last time and the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF)“.