In June, the divisionfood and non-alcoholic beverages” was the one that presented the lowest variation in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and contributed to the slowdown of inflation again to reach the 6% monthly. During the first half of July, the trend continued. Thus, at least, it emerges from different private surveys.
A new “moderate” variation in the category foodthe one with the highest incidence within the CPI, can help to contain inflation this month. A figure that, in any case, they estimate will be higher than that of June, although it could be below 7%.
In this context, according to the survey carried out by the Free Consumers group, in the first half of July the food basket rose 2.5%. It was his lowest variation for that period since February: For example, in June it had climbed 3.1% in the first fifteen days, in May 3.8%, in April 4.9% and in March 3.6%.
According to this survey, in the first half of the month the warehouse products rose 3%led by eggs (6%) and rice (4.9%). Fruits and vegetables had an increase of 1.5%, with strong rises in apple and chard, but with setbacks in plum tomato and orange. While, meats increased 2.6%.
In this scenario, when analyzing what may be the factors that they affected In a lower variation of the food item in June and in the first days of July, Damián Di Pace, director of the Focus Market consultancy, pointed out: “In principle, fruits and vegetables were down, after having very strong increases. In the case of the meathas a very important participation in the INDEC weighting: beef cuts continue to stable and the chicken even dropped in price. Regarding bovine meat, what must be pointed out is that due to the drought there were problems feeding the cattle, so much more females than usual were sent to slaughter; therefore, the market was oversupplied by 13% in year-on-year terms”.
“These factors, fruits and vegetables, stable meat and chicken down, caused the indicator to drop. However, the mass consumption products of the basic food basket are still on the rise. Even some in June had double-digit increases,” the analyst remarked.
For their part, from the consultancy Ecolatina they pointed out that “the Food and beverages chapter (+5.3%) slowed down 1.6 pp compared to the first half of June, mainly due to lower growth in Meats (+1.6%) and a fall in Fruits (-0.5%)”.
“The products of Massive consume -packaged- climbed 6.5%showing a slowdown of 0.4 pp compared to the first half of June”, detailed from the firm, which they estimated for the second half of the month “a marginal deceleration of the general index, which would leave it for the monthly average in the area of 6.2%”.
Surveys
Meanwhile, as pointed out by Eco Go, “the survey corresponding to the second week of the month registered a variation of 1.4% in food prices compared to the previous week.”
“With this data and considering a weekly variation projection of 1.5% for the next two weeks of the month, inflation for food consumed at home in July would climb to 7.1% monthlyhe. If we also consider the evolution of food consumed outside the home (7.8%), inflation in food would reach 7.2%”, they detailed from the firm, which project a general inflation of 6.6% for July.
For their part, from the LCG consultancy they disseminated their survey of the third week of the month, in which it recorded an increase of 2.3% weeklywhich represented an acceleration of 0.5 pp compared to the previous week.
“On the contrary, average monthly inflation continued to slow down, standing at 4.2%and accumulates a drop of 4.7 pp compared to the peak registered in the second week of May”, they maintained from the firm.
“This week the percentage of products with increases was considerably higher than in previous weeks: 57%. This level happens three weeks in a row with 19% of the products surveyed with an increase. Adding this last data, the monthly average is currently 28%, which means that the total basket adjusts every three and a half weeks on average”, they detailed from LCG.
In the third week, “drinks and infusions to consume at home” pushed upwards, climbing 8.3%. Vegetables, meanwhile, increased 5%. Meats, on the other hand, increased 0.8%while dairy products and eggs did not present variation and fruits fell 0.2%.
Source: Ambito
