In it run run of the market, the phenomenon that generates the greatest expectation is javier milei where the percentage of votes it obtains will be closely monitored and whether or not it is consolidated as the “third way”. In another opposition dilemma, JxC turns heads for the attractive inmate between Horacio Rodriguez Larreta and Patricia Bullrich. On the side of the ruling party, despite the fact that Sergio Massa It is also seen as a “friendly market”, analysts are interested in the percentage that it obtains from the PASSED and if he finally manages to be the most voted candidate.
consultation
A recent report titled “Attention STEP” tried to compare the macro conditions with the percentage of votes of the ruling party. In this sense, he anticipated that, if one takes into account the main economic variables that affect the vote, the margin of surprise “should be low” in terms of the chances of ruling party it means.
For Consultatio, “the PASSED should not be an event market of the first magnitude”. The options, which for the consultatio stockbroker company are low, they are the following:
- A very good performance javier milei that projects it towards a ballotage.
- A good performance of Sergio Massa which suggests a line of continuity.
- A victory for the precandidates of Together for Change that contains a non-cooperative attitude on the part of the loser.
FMyA Consultant
In the panorama of last August 4, the consultancy led by Fernando MarullFMyA, analyzed the open front of the choices STEP of this Sunday. Within this framework, she specifically focused on the internal JxC between Patricia Bullrich and Horacio R. Larreta and avoided analyzing the panorama at the national level by highlighting that JvC won in 17 provinces, seizing key districts from the peronism.
In this way, they pointed out a PvC victory with 37% of the votes, taking 3% advantage of Union for the Fatherland. In the case of the JxC inmate, he highlighted that despite the advantage of Bullrich in the polls “it’s an open end.” “The chances increased that larreta win the internal one”, concluded the report.
PPI (Personal Investment Portfolio)
For PPI, Sunday will mark a “before and after” with very “dissimilar” results. So much so that they affirmed that, according to the results, it can have a different impact on the dollar.
- Opposition advantage: eases the transition, lowers the dollar CCL and the currency gap. It would help reduce the expectation of discreet jumping from the officer.
- Strengthened ruling party: could put additional pressure on the dollar CCLfurther currency gap and a more limited margin of maneuver to avoid the officer devaluation (They do not rule out help from the Monetary Fund (IMF) to avoid spiraling inflation).
- Intermediate scenario: the opposition wins but not by a high margin. Stretch the scenario of tension and uncertainty until October.
roman group
Finally, roman group he also produced a probability analysis. In this report, what is most interesting is that he does not rule out a choice of thirds (as Cristina Kirchner proposed at the time), although with less chance than months ago.
- Scenario A (35% probability)
–JXC obtains a volume > 40%
-He ruling party take out 24-27%
-The Freedom Advances take out >20%
In this sense, Romano points out that, if so, the results will possibly materialize a bullish rally very important of the Argentine assets until october elections. Possibly, with this “emptying of power of the ruling party” and of Massais pressed towards official dollar devaluation and there is a fall of the financial dollars searching bridge the gap and start the monetary adjustment who is asking for the Background (devaluation 40-60%).
- Scenario B (35% probability)
– JXC obtains a volume of votes between 36-40%
– He ruling party draws equal to or < 30%
– The Freedom Advances does not get more than 18%
In this scenario, where JXC is heading to win the general electionspossibly there will be a new rise in the Argentine assets and there will be a relaxation of the financial dollars, as estimated by the Romano Group. Yeah JXC is close to winning first roundthe impact will be even greater towards the drop in financial dollars and bond appreciation and local actions. If, on the contrary, the result is JXC with 36% vs. the ruling party with 30%, possibly the government will try avoid devaluation of the officer and look to be competitive in October. If it is competitive, the current management will try to avoid at all costs the officer devaluation.
This would be the worst scenario in the short term for the marketwhere the pressure towards financial dollars and downward corrections would be generated in the local assets. Romano does not see chances of one officer devaluation and will try to give liquidity to the “pockets”, contain prices and generate an effect of revaluation of wages real in 3 months.
- Scenario D (20% probability of occurrence)
stage of thirds between JXC, ruling party and Freedom Advances (LLA)
This is a very complex scenario because the chances of a ruling party maintaining power grow strongly. If it was left out of ballotage La Libertad Avsnza, but with a high volume of votes greater than 24%, it is not clear where these votes would go. If, for example, the candidate for JXC out larreta instead of Patricia Bullrichyou should naturally see a lineup between Milei and Bullrichbut this scenario would leave a new argentine government very weakened and opening the possibility that javier milei win the elections (without experience and political volume to contain a possible major social crisis).
Source: Ambito
