Next Tuesday the 15th INDEC will publish the data inflation July, which would show a higher monthly variation than the one exhibited in June. And, according to different private surveys, the upward trend in retail prices continued during the first week of august. A month in which, according to analyststhere would again be an increase in the variation of the CPI.
Various factors influence these projections. On the one hand, they point out, the increases in the meat price. Although it can also affect the inflation of August the volatility that the alternative dollars are exhibiting, which in many cases set nominal records in recent days. And also adds the crawling peg acceleration by the Central Bank.
“Alternate dollar volatility may add further pressure to inflation. What happens now is that it is difficult to distinguish why there is more inflation. I would say that since mid-July we see that prices are rising fasterbecause many factors came together: the blue; At the same time, the Government gave the special dollar to various sectors, especially corn; Import taxes increased. And, because of corn, the price of meat began to rise. In other words, a lot of things are happening since the second half of July, which is causing more inflation, it is something that can already be seen in the data,” Camilo Tiscornia, from the C&T consultancy, explained to Ámbito.
Precisely, when referring to the surveys of the first week of August, the economist maintained that “There was a pretty strong acceleration in food prices.” “I think that this theme of the blue skyrocketing, will add more pressure to prices. There is also an acceleration in the devaluation of the official exchange rate, which is key. But it will be difficult to distinguish because many things are happening at the same time ”, summarized Tiscornia.
Another survey that showed an acceleration in the first week of August was the report of prices in supermarkets prepared by the Center for Economic and Social Studies Scalabrini Ortiz (CESO). The indicator presented a weekly increase of 2.7% “Driven by household appliances (3.5%) and Fresh Food (3.5%)”. “In the latter, processed foods (9.4%), eggs (9%) and meat (8.3%) stand out, including beef, poultry and pork,” the study details.
In this scenario, when analyzing the impact of the rise in alternative dollars on August prices, Aldana Montano, CESO economist, explained: “I think it may have an impact a little, but it is difficult to know how much. Normally it happens that its transfer to prices depends on the moment of the year in which we are and how strong that increase is”.
“But what is going to have the most impact on inflation in August, from what we have been seeing in the CESO Supermarket Price Index, are the increases in the price of fresh produce, specifically the increased meat. It is due to the increase registered in the Cañuelas Market, which began to register towards the end of July. This is already reflected in the first week of August and will impact inflation for the month. Obviously, it is still difficult to make a projection, but in principle the increase in the price of meat is going to be key to inflation in August,” Montano explained.
projections
Along the same lines, Eugenio Marí, Chief Economist of the Libertad y Progreso Foundation, pointed out that the CPI that they measure “it accelerated in the last week of July and the first week of August, with which it is outlined to close the month between 7.5-8%. “Although if the run against the peso deepens after the result of the STEP, then the acceleration could increase to the range 8.5-9% per month,” he explained.
“In recent days we have seen a drop in the demand for pesos, which is putting pressure on its value. The first place where this is reflected is in the financial market, which is the most flexible, and where we increasingly need more pesos to buy a dollar.. But if this dynamic persists, then it will be transferred to the other prices in the economy.”explained Mari.
For its part, from the consultancy Eco Go they also project an acceleration in food inflation for August, based on what was observed in the first week of the month: “After the expansion of the taxable base of the PAIS Tax and the implementation of the agro dollarmeats –contained until now due to the oversupply resulting from the drought- accelerated again, registering strong increases between the last week and the first of this month. Thus, the survey corresponding to the first week of August exhibited a variation of 2.8% with respect to the previous week. This implied an acceleration of the indicator, which increased 1.4 pp in the margin. With this data and considering a projection of a weekly variation of 1.8% for the remaining weeks, inflation for food consumed at home in August would reach 8.9% monthly”.
Source: Ambito
