After the PASO, this Tuesday the INDEC will disseminate the data of inflation of July. And, according to the surveys of different private consultancies, a acceleration in the CPI variation, after the 6% in June. The upward trend, they say, would be sustained during August.
The impact on prices of the alternative exchange rate volatilityand an acceleration in the last week of the food, would place inflation in July above 6.5%. Some polls even predict that it may be greater than 7%.
For example, from the LCG consultancy they pointed out that their survey of food prices “marked a slowdown in July, hovering around increases of around 5% per month, which would contribute 1.4 pp of inflation to the CPI”. “On the other hand, increases in regulated prices such as transport, fuel, communications and schools would contribute almost 1.6 pp to the CPI. Lastly, the rise in the parallel dollar towards the end of the month could partially affect the figures for July. Therefore, we expect the inflation data for July to accelerate compared to the previous month, reaching around 6.7%-7% per month.”, they pointed out from the firm.
Meanwhile, the CPI for the Libertad y Progreso Foundation showed an increase of 6.6% in July (in June, it had projected 6.8%). “The item ‘Food and non-alcoholic beverages’ was once again below the general index, increasing 6.0% and only in the last measurement (fourth week) did it have a significant increase, and ended up contributing 1.4 pp to the index. In turn, ‘Housing’ presented an increase of 11.7%, with an incidence of 1.2 pp and in third place ‘Medicine’ grew 9.6% monthly, contributing 0.8 pp to the general measurement”, they detailed from the signature.
Along the same lines, the CPI (GBA) of Orlando Ferreres for July registered a monthly increase of 6.6% (In June, the consultant had estimated a rise of 7.2%). “Regarding the main items, Recreation and Health led the increases for the month, registering monthly increases of 9.1% and 8.8% respectively, followed by Miscellaneous Goods, which presented a variation of 8.3%,” they analyzed.
Meanwhile, according to the survey of prices of C&T for the GBA, in July there was an increase of 7.7% monthly (it had been 6.7% in June). The acceleration, according to the firm, occurred in part “due to the peak that tourism had due to the winter holidays and that made recreation one of the most dynamic items in the month (14%).” “Nevertheless, A significant acceleration was observed in the vast majority of the prices surveyed during the monthespecially from the third week, coinciding with the skyrocketing of the blue and the new official measures, which altered the exchange rates and import prices”, they detailed.
Projections for August
The acceleration in prices seen in the last leg of July leaves a high floor for August. With food pushing up. For example, according to the Eco Go survey for the first week of the month, the item rose 2.8%, “driven by the jump in the price of meat.” Hence, They projected inflation at a general level for the month of 8.5%.
Along the same lines, Aldana Montano, CESO economist, pointed out that “what is going to have the most impact on inflation in August, from what we have been seeing in the CESO Supermarket Price Index, are the increases in the price of fresh, on time increase in meat. “It is due to the increase registered in the Cañuelas Market, which began to register towards the end of July. This is already reflected in the first week of August and will impact inflation for the month. Obviously, it is still difficult to make a projection, but in principle the increase in the price of meat is going to be key to inflation in August,” Montano explained.
For his part, Eugenio Marí, Chief Economist of the Libertad y Progreso Foundation, pointed out that the CPI that measures the firm “it accelerated in the last week of July and the first week of August, with which it is outlined to close the month between 7.5-8.0%. “Although if the run against the peso deepens after the result of the PASO, then the acceleration could increase to the range 8.5-9.0% per month,” he explained.
Source: Ambito
