The measure is equivalent to a 22% devaluation in a single day. Thus, market speculation that the government would devalue after the results of the PASO were confirmed. This measure implies the suspension of the crawling peg, the rhythm of daily microdevaluations that the BCRA had been carrying out, until the presidential elections in October.
“The monetary authority deems convenient readjust the level of interest rates of monetary regulation instruments, in line with the recalibration of the level of the official exchange rate. This, in order to anchor exchange expectations and minimize the degree of transfer to prices, tend towards positive real returns on investments in local currency and favor the accumulation of international reserves,” the BCRA justified in a statement in this regard.
“You have to be attentive to what happens with the crawling peg,” he told Ambit an official source on Friday when asked what could happen to the fixed term rate. Thus, they anticipated the possibility of a change in the BCRA’s monetary policy post-pass, as expected by the market and that this could coincide with a rise in rates.
And it is that this jump in the exchange rate at these levels requires an adjustment of the rate, which seeks to remain positive in real terms in the face of the economy and the evolution of the official dollar. “This is a first move to sustain reserves and try to maintain the demand for pesos,” says economist Rodrigo Álvarez.
He explains that this is a way of putting the economic variables at an equilibrium level and anticipates that it is the first step of many to come.
For his part, the economist Federico Glustein explains that this decision by the BCRA “is part of what happens in the post-PASO economy after the surprising results” and points out that it is a way of avoiding an unexpected run, but also what sees as a correction of the errors in the macro that were being committed.
For Glustein, “the pre-opening of falling bonds of up to 8% was the strongest signal, after the rise of the crypto dollar.” Let’s remember that in exchanges, the exchange rate tied to cryptocurrencies exceeded $700. And he anticipates that, now, there will possibly be a move to the blue and the financials and, in turn, to inflation.
Thus, the economist expects that, with the projection of 120% per year, “we are essentially going to fall short.” And it is that he anticipates that, with this devaluation, its subsequent transfer to prices is obvious.
In turn, he anticipates that, “we must see the impact of the rate on household debts, credit card rates and how it influences the dollarization of portfolios.” However, at this time, what is known is that the card dollar is trading around $730.
In this way, the BCRA aligns monetary policy with the demands that the International Monetary Fund (IMF)on the one hand, and is in line with market expectations, on the other.
Note in development.-
Source: Ambito
