Investors understand that Minister Sergio Massa has a chance of reaching the ballot and see him taking action to try to keep the economy relatively calm.
The black swan of Javier Milei occurred this Sunday, Now the markets have begun to review projections and weave new models for October, and one of the doubts is what will happen with the relationship with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).. Unlike what happened with Mauricio Macri in 2019, with whom the agency cut the relationship as soon as it was known that he had lost, the current Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, has a certain advantage, investors say.
On the one hand, Javier Timerman, founding partner of Adcap Grupo Financierodoes not expect Javier Milei “to become the interlocutor of the IMF regarding what Argentina has to do” even though he had an important election. “The agreement with the Fund will remain as it is and surely they will forgive Massa some variation on what was agreed,” Timerman said. The financier considered that the result of the PASO, which generated a scenario of three forces disputing the votes in thirds, prevents the Minister of Economy, who in turn is a candidate, from kicking the board. “In 2019 Macri came out to say ‘look what happens if Kirchnerism wins’ and he must have regretted having left the markets to chance. Instead, I see Massa trying to calm things down”he added, since the minister is expected to seek to enter a possible final ballot in November.
Instead, PPI Stock Company, is more pessimistic. “For the Fund it is still the worst scenario, because it goes from having a valid interlocutor (Massa) to having three potential ones. Paradoxically, the ‘Massa minister’ will be very subordinate to the ‘Massa candidato’ and the pressure from his coalition to disregard the guidelines of the Fund and launch a new Platita Plan in the two months that separate us from the general elections to try to get into the ballot and, at a minimum, preserve the province of Buenos Aires”, he points out.
While, Aldo Abram, the director of the Liberty and Progress Foundation, believes that the last measures adopted by the Central Bank, such as the “discreet jump” of the official dollar and the rate hike, were somehow previously discussed with the IMF, as a currency of payment, to advance with the pending disbursement. “The Central Bank is trying to heal itself, and I would not be surprised to also comply with some requirement of the International Monetary Fund with this rate increase”, he assured.
Walter Morales, CEO of Wise Capital, pointed out that the latest measures announced “is what the IMF was asking for”. Therefore, he was of the opinion that “The disbursement of US$7,500 million that is expected for the 22nd of this month as an approximate date, should take place.” “Imports are going to be approved towards the end of the month but with the focus on basic needs, such as packaging,” Morales said.
By your side, Maximiliano Donzelli, Head of Research at IOL investoronline, indicated that this “”black swan” post-step is not similar to what happened in 2019.” “Despite the volatility that we may have in the short, medium and long term, the outlook would seem to be encouraging for the local market,” said Donzelli.
Source: Ambito
