This Tuesday two reports will be released on what happened prior to the STEP with the two most important key variables. However, both will be left with arrears.
This Tuesday the central bank will publish the Survey of Expectations and Markets (REM) and the data of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) will also be released amid strong volatility in the market. However, these projections will be delayed due to the decision made by the Ministry of Economy of devalue the currency by 22% after the results of the STEP.
According to the projections of the consultants, July inflation it could be between 6.5% and 7% (up from 6% in June), due to the volatility of alternative exchange rates and an acceleration of the increase in food at the end of the month. He dollarone of the variables that the gurus analyze was also behind because these projections do not contemplate the devaluation that the Government applied on Monday.
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Inflation: what do economists expect going forward?
With the devaluation of official Dollar, most economists from private consultancies estimate that inflation could be between 10% and 14% for the month of August. Pre-devaluation, it was expected to be approximately 8%. If confirmed, it would be the first time in 21 years that the cost of living would hit the double-digit threshold in a month.
According to the first polls by private consultants, the price of meat was already going to be a problem for the August data, but the rise in the official dollar gave it the necessary seasoning.
“The Government seems to seek to carry out a damage containment policy, but that does not imply that the fragility of the exchange rate and electoral expectations do not have a cost on inflation. The jump in the devaluation rate will have an impact on prices and the August rate will hardly exceed double digits. The question is whether with these measures, added to those at the end of July, the exchange market will achieve some stability until October, ”he analyzed before Ámbito Claudio Caprarulo, Director at the Analytica consultancy.
Source: Ambito
