Although the Government tries to contain the transfer to prices of the devaluation of the official dollar carried out on Monday after the PASO, various private surveys have already they estimate a strong impact on inflation and forecast double-digit increases for food.
At the rises of the meatwhich had already reacted to the increase in standing farms, were joined in recent days by strong increases in oil, yerba, rice, baked goods and drinkswhich in some cases reached 25%.
Within this framework, the Government ordered the update of the program Fair Prices, with increases of 5% monthly until October, and as a counterpart it will offer “tax benefits for companies that comply with them. In addition, as the spokesperson for the Presidency, Gabriela Cerruti, pointed out this Thursday, the firms that increased the prices of their products “they promised to roll them back” as a condition to access those benefits.
However, several factors converge to expect a marked acceleration in inflation in August. And, within the general index, the food item will push upwards strongly. “In the first half of the month, the category of food and non-alcoholic beverages has accumulated an increase of 6.5% compared to the July average. Already in the last week of July and early August, we had noticed a significant acceleration and with the devaluation of Monday after PASO, this trend was not only confirmed, but also aggravated it,” Lautaro Moschet, economist at Fundación Libertad, explained to Ámbito. and Progress.
“Although with the volatility of the last days it is difficult to project what may happen until the end of the month, we imagine it to sit comfortably above 9%. Of course, as the situation becomes clearer, we will have a more certain picture.but there is the manifest possibility that it will even be located in double digits”, added the analyst, who pointed out that “with the uncertainty that is being handled today, it is difficult for companies to comply with a price agreement”. “Conceptually, it has been shown that it is not a solution to lower inflation. But, in addition, there is the risk of committing to sell at a price that is not sustainable, which increases the risk of shortages”, explained Moschet.
For his part, Camilo Tiscornia, from the C&T firm, told Ámbito that the food “They are already rising to double digits: they increased by 11% in the third week of August against the same week in July”. A fact that, according to him, could lead to double-digit inflation this month.
Meanwhile, although its survey of the second week of the month did not show the impact of the devaluation, from Eco Go they also forecast a rise of more than 10% for the food item in August. “The survey corresponding to the second week of the month registered a variation of 1.9% in food prices compared to the previous week,” they pointed out from the firm, and projected: “With this data and considering a projection of variation weekly average of 4.6% for the next three weeks of the monthinflation for food consumed at home in August would climb to 13.3% per month. If we also consider the evolution of food consumed outside the home (10.1%), food inflation would reach 12.8%”.
projections
In this context, from CEPA they analyzed the four issues that influence the evolution of the price of food and beverages during this month: “On the one handthe implementation of the Country Tax on a good part of the imported inputs, it was carried out at a price and, in many cases, with a remark above the specific impact of the measure (many remarked more than the proportion of foreign input over the total value of the product)”.
“Secondly, and partly as a result of the implementation of the corn dollarthere was a noticeable increase in beef: in the last two days of July it increased its values, in the Treasury Market, more than 20% and up to 30% if compared to prices in mid-August. Third, although difficult to measure, the possible impact of the increase in parallel dollars. Fourthly, the devaluation officiated on August 14 that had effects on prices”, they remarked from CEPA.
In this framework, they estimate that general inflation will reach double digits this month. “In August, inflation had begun to accelerate due to the adjustment of the free dollars in view of the PASO and it will do so now due to the impact that the devaluation of the official dollar will have by 22%,” they pointed out from LCG, and concluded: “We understand that half of the economy already worked at the free exchange rate, but a good part of the basic basket was still at the official exchange rate. With the inertia of prices and assuming a 50% rate, we estimate that inflation will go to levels of 14% in August and 12% in September. They are values that we take as a floor, because the instability associated with the electoral outcome has not ended”.
Source: Ambito
