He El Niño phenomenon could have a most significant impact than was predicted just a month ago, and with it, the possibility that the rainy arrive ahead of scheduleAccording to the latest report from the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR).
Although the campaign will begin with few reserves in the profiles and lack of precipitation that would partially hinder the incorporation of early plans, as spring progresses “The boy” will bring the humidity necessary for the late sowings and to transit the performance definition periods with favorable weather conditionsmatches the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BCBA).
Although it remains to be confirmed when exactly you are rainy could materialize, the consultant of the Strategic Guide for Agriculture of the BCR, Alfredo Elorriagasuggests that it is possible that the arrival of the water is earlier even ahead of schedule.
The work of the BCR reveals that in August the drought situation worsened, especially in the western Pampas region, where the water reserves are similar to those of last year. However, contrary to previous expectations, the El Niño phenomenon has gained strength instead of weakening, as had been anticipated one month ago.
El Niño gains strength: why and what it implies
According to the experts consulted by the Rosario entity, finally the ocean and the atmosphere are coupling its effects more effectivelywhich would increase the moisture transport from the Peaceful to the Argentina.
This change in the interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere is reflected in the gradual strengthening of the El Nino conditions throughout August, according to data provided by the National Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and other international organizations.
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This phenomenon could have important implications for him climate Argentina, especially with regard to the rainfall.
Compared with projections made a month ago, the new data suggest that the El Niño phenomenon could be more intense, oscillating between moderate and strong, in line with the initial predictions of June. This marks a noticeable change in trend and, for the agricultural producer, it means a greater probability of receiving rain by above normal during the planting season.
How can El Niño impact planting?
This could have crucial implications for the process of corn plantingwhich, added to the intensification of the phenomenon of Childprovides a renewed hope for the Argentine countryside in the upcoming agricultural season.
According to the forecast of rainfall from the latest BCBA seasonal agroclimatic report, during the spring “El Niño” will reach its fullnessalthough the interference from polar winds it will prevent you from completely eliminating the sources of drought mainly towards the center of the Pampean region where negative rainfall anomalies will be mild to moderate.
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The greater chances of reactivation of rains are given for October; but the uncertainty centers on what could happen with the rains in September and its impact on the evolution of early corn sowing.
The delay in the arrival of the rains could cut back the corn area in the region and stay below the area of 1.5 million hectares of the previous campaign.
He thermal regime be more subdued than in previous seasonswith less risk, both of late frosts like early heatssays the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.
On the other hand, for the summer the seasonal forecast indicates that “El Niño” will manage to significantly reduce the area with water deficita situation that would improve the conditions in the critical stages of the cereal, benefiting from the definition of its yield.
Source: Ambito
