The goal is to contain the inflation, after the impact of the devaluation of the official dollar the day after the PASO. It is that private consultants estimate that August will close with a variation of more than 10% in the CPI. Despite the fact that some surveys have registered a slowdown in the prices revised during the past week.
For example, the Supermarket Price Index carried out by the CESO, published this Monday, presented a weekly variation of 2.5%, to accumulate a monthly increase of 9.3%. Thus, in the last seven days the rise in prices slowed down compared to the previous week, when the impact of the devaluation quickly moved to shelves and the indicator climbed 4.7%.
Among the increases, the CESO highlighted the increases in Household Appliances (7.6%), Fresh Food (3.6%) and Home (3.3%). In Fresh Food, Meats (11%), Fruits and Vegetables (7.9%) and Frozen Foods (4.8%) stand out.
“In this fourth week of August, 16.1% of the products registered increases. That value is considerably less than the previous week, in which 44.6% of the products had registered weekly increases”, they detailed from CESO.
Meanwhile, the LCG Food and Beverage survey closed with a 2.3% weekly price increase, decelerating 1.8 pp compared to the peak of the previous week. “The weekly variation is explained by more than 50% by the increase in Meat, which was lagging behind the rest of the foods. Average monthly inflation continued to accelerate, climbing to 9.4% and exceeding the previous ceiling reached in May. Measured end to end, food inflation reached 10% in the last four weeks”, they pointed out from the firm, and detailed that meats climbed 3.9% in the week and accumulated an increase of 8.6% in the month.
Inflation forecast for August
With this scenario, general inflation will close August in double digits. “With data up to August 28, the IPC Libertad y Progreso accumulates a rise of 10.6% in the month. In this way, the eighth month of the year would be close to 11%, the highest inflation since the second hyperinflation; even surpassing the rise in prices from the exit of Convertibility”, Eugenio Marí, chief economist of the Libertad y Progreso Foundation, told Ámbito.
“The food item is rising at a weekly rate of almost 4% and accumulated 10% in the month%. This will be reflected in the poverty statistics, which will surely approach 45% towards the end of the third quarter. This gives us the pattern that adjustments in the exchange market without a program and without credibility simply accelerate the nominality of the economy, without solving the underlying problems”, concluded Marí.
Along the same lines, from the C&T consultancy they pointed out to this medium that inflation in August “would be close to 12%”, with a strong incidence of the food item.
Also from EcoGo projected headline inflation at 11.5%with foods that would reach a variation of 12.2%.
Beyond the impact of the devaluation, many regulated prices also increased in August and add pressure to the monthly inflation data. For example, from the CESO they reviewed: “prepaid medicinewith an increase of 8.72%, private schools of the Province of Buenos Aires had an increase of 18% for those who have a subsidy, as of August 1. The public transport services in the Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires (AMBA) and in the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires (CABA) they had an increase from August 1 of 5.8% for groups. The train ticket ranges from $25.72 to $33.28, depending on the line.
As for the gasoline, the government together with the oil companies, established a last increase of 12.5% until October 31 in all service stations in the country. Cell phone companies have an increase in rates of 4.5% per month until December of this year.
Source: Ambito
