It seems thatthe electoral campaign took a backseat, at least, for ordinary voters who only have in their heads the systematic grinding of family income. Only the political world, while purifying and healing the wounds of the inmates, continues to focus on preparing the electoral media arsenal, ignoring the harsh economic and social reality.
Thus, in the meetings and meetings between investors, funds, clients, analysts and consultants, on the political issue, only the questions about what the libertarian candidate is really like are repeated. Actually, there are two questions that frame the momentum of financial meetings: Between whom will the run-off be (if any)? And if the Government will be able to maintain the dollar at $350?
Inflation projected by the market for August and September
In the meantime, private projections of interest rates monthly inflation for August and September they are for mass suicide. At the trading desks they are already talking about the fact that for the next few months monthly inflation will be in double digits, if everything goes well.
The inflationary acceleration, the talk of any formal or informal meeting, typical of the devaluation anabolics, sets a pattern of 10% to 12% for August, and around 15% for September. A surviving guru of several crises highlighted that these are rates not seen since the early 1990s.
Thus, a well-known lover of fixed income and owner of a Patagonian lodge passed the latest issues of Eco Go de Alimentos y Beverages to a colleague, while showing him the new flies brought from Scotland. Rounding up, the first week of August was close to 3%, the second 2%, the third 5% and the fourth almost 6%.
All devaluation, expectations and what is yet to come in terms of rate adjustments and other herbs. This is how the market is preparing for the new inflationary escalationand for several months. They commented at a financial lunch that the market does not believe the minister that he is not going to devalue again.
Before dessert, one of the diners threw the Rofex data on the table, showing how the curves reflect a high expectation of devaluation for the coming months. The bets of a discrete event after the generals and before the delivery of command mark an expectation of accumulated devaluation that is close to 70%. September starts with a number of contracts of more than 2,800 million dollars and, for the moment, less than 300 clubs as of December 10.
But fuel does not lack expectations, since weekly inflation accelerated, the gap broke 120% and despite having devalued, there is still talk of delay. The market prices indicate that it is already in the prices that the A3500 (official wholesale dollar) will not be maintained for a long time. The self-fulfilling prophecy is that after the general elections the Government will make another exchange rate adjustment.
The people of BlackToro (BT), led by Gabriel Ruiz (formerly Santander, formerly RJ Delta) made their debut in partnership with a meeting for clients and investors at Palacio Duhau. Living in Miami for years, they crossed the Rio Grande to come to Buenos Aires and present the financial advisory team. The meeting framed under a master class by economists Ricardo Arriazu (advisor to the Board of BT) and Fernando Marengo (chief economist and partner of BT) on the global and local situation was a balm for the spirits of the participants.
bombed on Milei and dollarization, Arriazu entertained with anecdotes that he starred in along with characters such as Kissinger, Volcker and Friedman. Among all the data and forecasts that Arriazu and Marengo provided, perhaps, that of the exchange rate delay was one of the ones that drew the most attention. For them, well measured, not as the IMF does, it is 50% and 30% taking into account the terms of trade. With the moderate optimism that characterizes them, they expect a good 2024.
Source: Ambito
