After the implementation of the farm dollar, where soybeans were excluded and corn sales were promoted, the government once again tried to benefit the soybean producers and improve the exchange rate after setting the official dollar at $350 until October. Despite producers’ doubts about the implementation, a new report from the Austral University put on the table the opinion of the producers in the event that the Government decides to carry out a new dollar soybeans before October, to improve the reservation situation.
The Ag Barometer Austral considers that for the Government it is always latent as short term measure the possibility of encourage liquidity of the producers, through a improved exchange rate in relation to the official dollar.
As a result of this possibility, they consulted the producers about their vision on whether a soybean dollar 4. 60% of the producers think so, “although they seem somewhat reluctant to speed up their sales if this event occurs,” the report states.
“Most growers would be willing to sell a 25% of your stock and they would keep the rest in a context of uncertainty, possible greater devaluation of the exchange rate, exchange rate unification, etc. “, the producers indicated to the specialists of the Agribusiness and Food Center of the Austral University.
The delicate situation of reserves
The International Monetary Fund put an end to speculation. In the report on the economic and financial situation that he released last Friday, he determined that the net reserves of the central bank they are negative by 10.3 billion dollars. And that the Central Bank has liquid reserves for -14,100 million dollars.
From the table prepared by the IMF staff With data from the BCRA, what could be the first official figure on such a sensitive issue emerges. And by the way, it reaffirms the extremely serious situation that the Central Bank is going through.
Until that moment, the Central Bank did not issue information in this regard, and the consultants made approximations based on the scattered data of the Central Bank.
With no dollars of its own, the Central Bank is using the yuan provided by the People’s Bank of China. In the report published by the IMF it says that Said swap amounts to the equivalent of 17.9 billion dollars, of which 6.5 billion dollars were used. There is also a swap for 3,000 million dollars contributed by the Bank of Basel, guaranteed with gold or US Treasury bonds owned by the BCRA. The possibility of using the yuan is subject to the authorization of the Chinese Central Bank.
However, even though the central bank closed the month of August with purchases for almost US$1 million in ethe exchange market, the doubts of financial agents is the percentage allocated to the financial dollars intervention of what accumulates And, on the other hand, that the disbursement foreseen by the International Monetary Fund of US$7.5 billion, must be used to settle debts.
According to estimates of the Ecoviews Consultant, US$1,000 must be allocated for the CAF “advance” loan, US$775 for Qatar, US$1,650 Swap with China and US$4,250 for September-November payments, which would leave no dollars available. This is the reason why the market does not rule out a new soybean dollar until December.
Source: Ambito
