The industrial business community awaits the sectoral proposals of the main candidates for president. One of the members of the economic team of javier mileiof Freedom Advances, He anticipated the Argentine Industrial Union (UIA) that he will give them “less than two years” to adapt and then they will open the economy. Industrialists consulted by Ambit They assured that they are not afraid of the opening, but they ask for “equal conditions” to be able to compete.
Dario Epsteinan economist close to Milei, assured last Friday on Industry Day that in the case of being a government, the industry will be given “less than two years” and then they must be “ready to race”. In front of the businessmen, he affirmed: “For those who are uneasy because we believe in an open economy, I tell you: in the current situation, if we send them to compete, out of 400,000 SMEs, half of them would be left behind. We are not going to open at a disadvantage. We are going to remove all the inconsistencies, and in a couple of years when there is inflation and reasonable rates, legal certainty and a new labor law, there will be an important opening and there they will have to compete. Some companies and sectors will not have the strength and others, such as agribusiness, will not have any problem”.
In dialogue with this newspaper, three businessmen rejected the deadlines. Walter Andreozi, member of the executive committee of the UIAhe claimed: “Industrialists have no fear of opening markets and competition; but clearly the competition has to be on equal termsand for this, the macro must be ordered, there must be access to inputs to be able to produce, credits at reasonable rates and not bankruptcy, and labor legislation adapted to the new production conditions”.
In addition, Andreozzi called for pragmatism: “An opening based only on ideological dogmatisms will be a new fatal blow to hundreds of SMEs, an increase in unemployment, and a new cycle of development reversal. Only with a couple of large companies or leading sectors, it is insufficient to achieve a more inclusive society, beyond their strategic role, which must be highly valued”.
For his part, Guillermo Moretti, regional vice-president of the UIA, opined: “Freedom of competition is positive under equal conditions. We can compete with Europe, but to them it took them 40 years to have a single currency that it be stable, which is something that we need here. Or there is the case of Germany: the industry has million-dollar State subsidies, there is credit for renewal at a zero rate for 5 years with a 3-year grace period, because technology is considered obsolete after 5 years”.
In the same line, Jose Urtubey, director of Celulosa Argentina, assured: “When they say lightly that in two years you have to catch up because they open imports, I think they do not understand the dimension of the problem Argentina is facing. The economy has a macroeconomic problem and needs strong revisions. It took Ireland 10 years to stabilizeto Israel for 20 years, and today they are a model of competitiveness and productivity. To believe that we will do it in two years is at least a utopia”.
In addition, the industrial leader assured that he would like to know the fine print of these plans: “I would like to hear more about the program on how they are going to generate the conditions to be able to compete. We are a developing country, which is why there are already natural asymmetries. How is productive credit going to be recovered, which today is less than 10% of GDP?, much lower than the region, in two years? The tax burden must be lowered, but there are distortionary taxes such as gross income that are not the responsibility of the Nation. They are underestimating the problems, ”he said in an interview on TVP.
The Economist Bernardo Kosacoff, a professor at the UBA and the UTDT, opined: “It is positive that an immediate comprehensive opening is not being considered and that it is realized that time is needed. But to speak of terms such as 2 years is to ignore the complexity and heterogeneity of the Argentine production structure. An SME is not the same as a transnational subsidiary. Even some industries do not have to wait even two years to compete, such as Techint and Aluar”.
Before an opening, Kosacoff considered that systemic conditions need to be guaranteed: “A stable macroeconomy is required, without inflation, zero deficit, infrastructure to improve logistics, an efficient financial system, a technology institute for innovation, and a legal framework to suitable employment contracts. The essential for competitiveness are investment processes, qualification of human resources and innovation. If they do all that in 2 years, let the race begin”.
In the industry there is a lack of belief in the implementation of all the promises. He reflected on the question she asked him Diego Coatz, executive director of the UIAto Epstein at the end of his speech: “Why is an SME businessman who has been told for a long time that taxes on debits and credits are going to end, that labor litigation is going to end, that municipalities are not going to to collect more fees, that there will be a tax simplification in AFIP… Why would it be different now, so that in a year and a half the competitiveness is relatively better to be able to be exposed to competition from China or the United States?”. Epstein closed his participation with the answer: “I ask neither faith nor hope. Look and then act.”
The UIA on Bullrich
On the day of the industry that was celebrated in Entre Ríos, only Sergio Massa of the candidates for president, but he was invited because of his role as Minister of Economy, since the UIA does not invite candidates in the celebration that it holds every year on September 1. For now, the other two competitive candidates (Milei and Patricia Bullrich by Together for Change) only spoke at events related to the agricultural, financial and commercial sector, such as the La Rural expo, Council of The Americas or the EFI Expo. The view in the UIA, which they will seek to transmit to politics, is that they are not against an opening, but they demand a “intelligent opening”, where asymmetries and levels of integration are taken into account. It is that they claim that the proposals are always related to tax, macro and labor aspects, and although they agree that it is key to competitiveness, it is necessary to add the financial, logistics, infrastructure, innovation and digitization 4.0 aspects.
Although between 2015 and 2019 the UIA had clashes with the government of former President Mauricio Macri, on the day of the industry the speech of Enrique Szewach, JxC economist, was well received. This was stated by a high source from the UIA who preferred not to be mentioned: “He was the most sensible. Because he spoke of eliminating the trade administration and going for liberalization, but with commercial intelligence instruments, such as maintaining automatic licenses or measures antidumping. It seems that Carlos Melconian’s team is not going to want to leave the industry hanging.” Szewach was representing JxC since he works with Melconian at the Mediterranean Foundation.
Source: Ambito
