The Ministry of Economy will go to the market this Thursday to seek funding to renew maturities for about $660,000 millionin a context of high demand for coverage against inflation and against a potential new devaluation of the peso after October.
It is the first of the last six debt tenders in pesos that remain ahead to the current economic team, in case the government is unable to renew its mandate this year in the presidential elections.
Much of the task has already been solved the team of officials from the Ministry of Finance, because in an off-schedule call for bids carried out on September 1, they already managed to obtain funds that are equivalent to 70% of the commitments they have to meet this week.
In this way, according to market operators, Economy will not have problems obtaining the necessary funding, furthermore, to cover the fiscal deficit for the month.
It is because The proposals that Secretary Eduardo Setti has been putting on the table are very aligned with what is happening in the secondary marketswhere BONCER and dual bonds are showing a high level of demand. They turn out to be the most interesting instruments from the investment perspective as hedging. Especially the CER bonds maturing in November and the duals due in July 2024 seem to capture the most attention. In the second case, for analysts, they are the instruments that can best capture a potential devaluation and the subsequent change in prices.
According to data from the Congressional Budget Office (CPO), the Government has to raise at least $3.6 billion in what remains of this mandate. In relation to the September maturities, it has to obtain $835,000 million, of which $464,000 million is already in its portfolio. In the second call on the 28th of this month he has to add $175,000 million.
Later, in October, according to the OPC, it will have to refinance $1.72 billion and in November $1.34 billion. In December, the calls for bids are for Wednesday the 20th and Tuesday the 26th, that is, about 10 days after the next administration is installed, in case there is a change of political sign. In the last month of the year the commitments are reduced, just $195,000 million.
According to estimates by market agents, The bills and bonds issued by the Treasury would be at 50% of their value if they are passed through the sieve of the exchange gap. That would give bills and bonds prospects for improvement in the future.. The calculation was made by Javier Casabal, economist at Adcap Grupo Financiero, who maintains that “sovereign bonds in pesos are the cheapest assets with the highest expected profitability.” In this context, the analyst suggests that for the remainder of the year the Ministry of Economy has a high chance of maintaining the high levels of net financing that it has been showing in the latest calls.
Source: Ambito
