The inflation in the US corresponding to the month of August he gave one of lime and one of sand for the market. The bad news is that year-on-year inflation rises to 3.7%, one tenth more than expected and a higher figure compared to the previous 3.2%, which breaks with the slowdown in the rise in prices shown in recent months. .
It is a key piece of information that will be in the hands of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) facing his next meeting where he will define what he will do with the interest rate. While it is the second consecutive month of rebound in annual inflation, year-over-year consumer prices are down from a high of 9.1% in June 2022. The Federal Reserve has an inflation target of 2%.
He CPI in monthly term rises 0.6%, compared to 0.2% in July. For his part, the Underlying CPI In year-on-year terms it rose 4.3% in August, as I predicted the market (compared to 4.7% the previous month) – very good news – and on a monthly basis it rises 0.3% (compared to 0.2% previously).
This is the second consecutive month that prices are rising year-on-year, after a streak of declines of more than a year. In monthly terms, consumer prices rose six tenths compared to July.
Inflation: hard impact of the price of diesel
The prices of the gasoline They climbed strongly in August, reaching a maximum of $3.984 per gallon in the third week of the month, according to data from the United States Energy Information Administration, which compares with $3.676 per gallon in the same period in July.
Economists surveyed by Reuters had predicted that the CPI rose 0.6% last month and a 3.6% year-on-year. The report was published a week before the decision of the Federal Reserve on interest rates and followed data this month that showed an easing of credit conditions. working market in August.
Excluding volatiles food and energy components, the CPI rose 0.3%, in a context of declining prices for used cars and trucks. The so-called core CPI had increased by 0.2% for two consecutive months. Although rentals continued to increase, the trend is cooling and a further deceleration as more apartment buildings come on the market.
In the 12 months to August, the called underlying CPI rose 4.3%, the smallest year-on-year increase since September 2021 and less than the 4.7% in July.
Rates: expectations with the Fed
The financial markets They overwhelmingly expect the Fed to leave its policy rate unchanged next Wednesday, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Since March 2022, the US central bank raised the interest rate reference rate for one day 525 basis points, to the current range of between 5.25% and 5.50%. However, a rate hike in November remains likely, as the inflation of servicesexcluding housing, remains high.
According to a recent Balanz report, today’s inflation data “does not tilt the balance towards an increase in the rate” at its meeting on September 20. Several members of the monetary policy committee were suggesting that they prefer to wait before acting on another 25bps increase and today’s report does not justify a new adjustment in the monetary policy rate .
What yes, the focus of the september meeting will be in the update of the Fed members’ projections, particularly for activity and unemployment after the resilience exhibited by the American economy in recent months. The market reaction to today’s data is being limited, with American treasury rates erasing the initial reaction that was of further increases along the yield curve. Currently they operate with limited increases of 2-3bps for treasury bonds with maturities greater than 10 years. On the stock side, futures S&P 500 and the Nasdaq They moved into slightly negative territory once the report was known.
Source: Ambito
