Three officials from the entity told Ámbito that an increase is not planned. They are betting that the variation in consumer prices will moderate in September. A director confirmed that daily microdevaluations return in November.
The Central Bank will keep the monetary policy rate unchanged despite the jump in inflation which reached double digits in August. I know three sources from the entity confirmed to Ámbito who argued the decision based on surveys that show a moderation in the price variation during September. The Government is confident that at these levels, the rate will continue to be positive in real terms. A director of BCRA ruled out another discrete jump in the exchange rate after the elections and assured that In November the crawling peg will return.
After the exchange rate jump in mid-August, all eyes were on the data released by INDEC this Wednesday afternoon. To no one’s surprise, the transfer to prices of the devaluation of the official exchange rate was immediate and the Monthly inflation reached 12.4% in August. In this way, she was comfortably positioned as the highest so far this year.
In any case, tenths more or tenths less, is the number that both the consultants and the members of the economic team anticipated. Hence The confirmation of the data will not trigger changes in monetary policy for the moment. “We are seeing that the August case is a specific episode triggered by the devaluation, In September, inflation will once again be in the single digits,” a BCRA source told Ámbito.
The Government assures that the annual effective rate (TEA) of 209.4%, which has been in effect since mid-August, far exceeds the inflation projected for the entire year, which is why they consider that the real rate remains positive. “We are going to wait, we are not going to make changes for a month”confirmed to this medium another of the sources consulted in the monetary entity.
This Wednesday, the BCRA He bought US$24 million and extended his buying streak to 22 wheels, the longest of the year. Between August and so far in September, it managed to accumulate close to US$2.5 billion and hopes to collect a similar figure with the new soybean liquidation scheme that improves the real exchange rate for exporters. With that cushion, he aims to fulfill the promise of leaving the official dollar rate fixed until after the elections and also keep the parallels at bay.
“The liquidation of soybeans under the new program is going well, I think we are going to be around US$2,000 million,” said the BCRA director. Agustín D’attellis in dialogue with Radio 10. At the same time, he confirmed: “We are going to keep this official exchange rate at $350 until November.”
The official of the monetary entity also completely ruled out the possibility of a discrete jump in the exchange rate like the one in August after the primary elections. On this point, he announced that in November the Central Bank will resume the daily micro devaluation scheme “taking into account inflation, economic activity and the devaluation of trading partners.”
The Government’s projection is that starting in September and especially in October, a slowdown in inflation will begin to be seen. The bet for this to happen is precisely the fixed exchange rate as an anchor, which also made it possible to negotiate a series of price agreements in sectors such as mass consumption, clothing and medicines, among others.
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Source: Ambito
