Inflation in August was 12.5% monthly, a figure worse than expected. Food and Beverages advanced 15.6% on average, followed by Health, with 15.3%. What can we expect for this month?
Private measurements ensure that September inflation will continue in double digitsafter knowing the CPI for August, which rose to 12.5% in August, the worst figure in 32 years. Food and Beverages advanced 15.6% on average, followed by Health, with 15.3%. In the first case, the rise in the value of meat weighed, and in the second, the recurring rise in prepaid bills with the almost 20% increase in medicines.
It is worth remembering that This is the first inflation data after the 20% devaluation of the peso, the day after the PASO elections. For the economist Nery Persichini“disorderly devaluations bring with them high pass-throughs (transfer to prices)”, and expanded that “August captured only part of the dynamics. September should be above 12.4%“.
For the consulting firm C&T Economic Advisorsthe weekly price survey data reveal that in August they had a strong acceleration in the second fortnight, which leaves a very high statistical drag for September. “This means that, despite a certain moderation so far this month, it aims to close again with double-digit inflation,” they explained.
For its part, Eco Go consultants and its survey of retail prices that occurred in the first week of September, the weekly variation of food was 2.1%, which implies that it would reach 12.8% for the month. According to your measurement, The general projection for September will be 11% monthly.
To its turn, the chief economist of Ledesma consulting firm, Gabriel Caamaño, He highlighted as relevant to the August measurement that there was an increase of almost 14% in core inflation. “Monthly inflation for the second half of August was much higher than 12.4%. We are going to see a good part of that in the September number“, he anticipated.
The economist Ivan Carrinoalso gave his projection, as he maintained on the social network Much better news will not come in September“.
From Freedom and Progress Foundation, economist Lautaro Moschet He stated that “the very high inflation data for August leaves a discouraging outlook for the remainder of the year and In September it is most likely that we will have double digit data again“.
“August’s drag in itself is very strong, so the floor is already based on a pessimistic scenario. To this we must add that the first week of the month showed a variation of 3.6%, which means that prices continue to evolve with significant increases. Although we will have to see how the dynamics continue throughout the month, we estimate that September inflation will be between 11.6% and 13.7%“he indicated.
It should be noted that the private consulting firms and banks that make up the Market Expectations Survey (REM) carried out monthly by the Central Bank They estimated the increase in national consumer prices (CPI) for September at 12%0.3 percentage points below the 12.3% recorded in August.
Source: Ambito
