The level of the Central Bank Reserves, the future dollar contracts, the result of the general elections, and the measurement of the REM, These are some of the key indicators that the market follows to anticipate the price of the official currency for the end of the year. It should be noted that The Government anchored the official dollar at $350 after the PASO after generating a devaluation of 22% and thus ending the crawling peg until October.
In dialogue with Ambitthe Economist Amilcar Alcollante of the Center for Economic Studies of the Southassured that for him “what is going to impact the officer’s expectation of devaluation is the election result. If Milei wins, the official dollar will surely adjust above what it will be under the presidency of Bullrich or Massa. In fact, Melconian spoke of a split in the first months. That is to say, the officer would not go up that much.”
It should be noted that the final scrutiny of the PASO showed that Libertad Avanza obtained 29.9% of the votes, being the best-profile opposition force in the general elections. For Alcollante, “the central point is post-election since a jump in the exchange rate is discounted. Except in the scenario where there is a runoff for the ruling party.” If so, Together for Change would have to remain as a third force and Unión por la Patria would have to improve its performance.
Another central point, mentioned by economists, is the level of Central Bank Reserves. “If we look at the variables, the fact that the BCRA continues with a significant reserve drain in the coming weeks may increase the probability of an exchange rate adjustment in the short term. I also understand that with this Massa scheme (there are 20 business days left for the general election ) arrives at 22-O,” said Alcollante.
For Salvador Vitelli, economist and financial analyst“the evolution of reserves must be followed very strictly, because ultimately What we were seeing is that purchases end up being relatively timid in the exchange market“. Today, the Central Bank bought only one million dollars, the lowest purchase since September 1. However, the acquisition of foreign currency totaled 27 wheels, the longest positive streak of the year.
“The reserves do not end up increasing too much because a part also goes due to reserves and, furthermore, you are having a practically neutral situation in the increase of foreign exchange as a result of intervention especially in financial“added Vitelli. This is how the monetary authority is unable to recompose net international reserveswhich according to Aurum Valores estimates, They are in negative territory for US$4,693 million.
“Of the 1.3 billion liquidated today by the soybean dollar, 25% are no longer seen by the central bank because it is freely available to the deporters,” the economist explained and anticipated: “The great unknown is see what is going to happen starting in October when the soybean dollar runs out.” About this he said that the government is going to try not to devalue but that a bottleneck could be generated because in October too There are payments to make with the IMF.
For Nery Persichini, Head of Strategy at GMA Capitalthe market has two very clear indicators. On the one hand, he said, the August REM expects an official exchange rate of $510 average for December. And on the other hand, he mentioned the futures on MatbaRofex. In that market, Companies are taking coverage at $641 towards the end of the year. That is, a TNA of more than 300% or a TEA of 800%.
Source: Ambito
