A simple equation. Just the focus on a single variable which is, without a doubt, all the variables. We talk about the evolution of exchange rate. From the financial dollar market. It is the priority for Sergio Massa. You have to believe. Strictly speaking, it is a lie that the candidate has left the role of minister.
That reading is just another ruse of the Sunday columnists who probably string together conjectures. Getting to the point, returning to Massa, one could point out that it is a symbiosis, an interaction of the two, the candidate and the minister, two in one, who help each other to survive the different tensions. This is how the series of announcements that Massa put together in recent weeks can be conceived, where the relevant it is not so much generating a real improvement -although short term- of family income, but to prevent this improvement from going down the gutter of inflationary impact.
So that it is understood – and because it is vital to know the terrain over which we will have to travel in the coming days – The economic account that Sergio Massa makes is that of supply and demand. In the last hours, took note of the jump in the informal dollar, a narrowing of the supply of currency in the market that was potentially going to worsen. Then he announced the Vaca Muerta dollar, replacing the offer that was supposed to be missing once the soy dollar ended.. And so it will progress. Strictly speaking, Massa has another letter in his pocket that he would announce in the coming days if necessary: a mining dollar, with the same mechanics as oil: companies in the hydrocarbon sector will be able to settle 25% of their exports at the CCL exchange rate, without losing access to the MULC. So hope that there are no sudden spikes in quotes.
The great players
In some way, an anti-run architecture emerges whose effectiveness is short-term and that allows for a new -sectoral- depreciation of the Argentine currency. As Ámbito learned, yesterday morning, Massa anticipated the measures to the most important businessmen in the sector: Marcelo Mindlin, owner of Pampa Energía, Miguel Galuccio, the CEO of Vista, Pablo González, president of YPF, and representatives of Pan American Energy Group (PAEG) and Techint (Tecpetrol ), among others. Massa told them that expects settlements of US$1.2 billion within the next 60 days, a supply abundant enough to quell any attempt at destabilization in the financial market. While speaking to the businessmen, Massa had in his hand the evolution of the price of WTI, which is close to US$90 per barrel. A good international price. But this must be emphasized: For every 10 dollars, it is expected that 8 will enter through the MULC, and 2 through the cable dollar. Here is the fight, a kind of arm-wrestling with the financial market whose speculation is that the dollar will skyrocket from now on.
Aside from this equation, the minister is clear about what each of the oil sector leaders thinks and takes note. A few weeks ago, for example, at the presentation of a book, Marcos Bulgheroni, CEO of PAEG, presented his recipe for getting out of the crisis: defend the currency, lower inflation, accumulate reserves, clean up the balance sheet of the Central Bank and that there be a limit to the financing of the government in power.
The CCL dollar woke up
The fact that must be weighed is that the exchange rate tension equation is carried out daily. A kind of notebook where you write down the currency supply column because, In Massa’s conception, the fight is over there. For calm on the financial level. And for what A potential increase in the exchange rate does not make the price system -and those who fix it- keep the lion’s share of the beneficial effect that consumption is expected to have in the short term. In some way, the most strange thing about economic policy says present and thinks like this: “If the lack of dollars is what puts pressure on the exchange rate and this, in turn, sets expectations and accelerates inflation, then the supply of foreign currency will have to be ensured until it is necessary.”
Yesterday, for example, the “Cash with Settlement” dollar (CCL) woke up strongly ($775) and scored its biggest daily rise in six weeks, to break its September record, while the MEP reached over $700 on the day, but the Central Bank appeased it towards the end of the round. The blue one was over $750. It was on a day in which the Government and agro-exporters confirmed that this week the soybean dollar ends at 4, despite the rumors that have emerged in recent days about a possible extension. Will Massa be able to calm the waters? In favor, it is a high price in historical terms, Since, be careful because we are going back in time, the price from June 2002, which reached $4, is equivalent today to approximately $685. Against: the meager reserves in the BCRA and the price of the dollar in the world, at a 10-month high, while Treasury bond yields reach their highest level since October 2007.
Source: Ambito
