The green one put on his running shoes and is going for 22-O. External horror because none of the tertiants arouses enthusiasm. Is the libertarian wave celebrating or is it over? Counting business days.
The green one put on his running shoes and is going for 22-O. External horror because none of the tertiants arouses enthusiasm. Is the libertarian wave celebrating or is it over? Counting business days.
Minute One
While the dollar rubs its hands in preparation and is already warming up for the last leg of the 22-O race, the candidates continue doing their thing. For now, On the trading tables and in the bunkers of the management companies, emotions and expectations are already decanting, and they have a more or less clear picture: this is a disaster.. No candidate manages to excite or encourage a glimmer of hope. This is also seen abroad.
The exchange between local investors and their foreign peers shows that, unlike in 2015, for example, no one believes that a priori or Javier Milei neither Patricia Bullrich and less Sergio Massa They can guarantee turning the economy around and shuffling and giving again, giving rise to a new economic scheme that will take the country out of the crossroads of secular stagnation. It is not that Mauricio Macri was seen as “the enlightened one” or as “the prophetic statesman”, nothing could be further from it, but that he managed to awaken “dreams” that the decline could be reversed and the resurgence of the economy could be faced. But it was quite the opposite and today outside investors do not bet a cent.
Obviously the speculators They are always attentive to play some chip, above all, because of the returns that Argentine assets promise, but nothing more, no one expects even a small amount of investments and much less productive landings, beyond those already associated with the energy sector and some others. leading case like lithium. All this is talked about at the tables and above all the question arises as to whether the Milei wave has already passed? In this regard, the polls, beyond the reservations of the case, show in unison that after the PASO the libertarian leader gained a lot of ground.
Today Milei He seems to be in winter quarters, he ran off the stage, on the advice of his accomplices. Milei had a positive image level of around 35%, which fluctuated depending on her bravado. What everything now seems to indicate is that after PASO Milei had the best performance of her, reaching a level of neutral net image (42% positive and 44% negative) and now she slowly returned to previous levels. It’s like the wave has already passed, it touched its peak and began to lower its image, experts say. The axis of the campaign Milei of dollarization and vouchers in terms of effect seems to have been exhausted.
Now then who sets the agenda? And well, Massa with his barrage of spending expansion measures he took center stage, but nothing more. In this sense, the EcoGo consulting firm of economist Marina Dal Poggetto estimates that the fiscal cost of the so-called Platita Plan is approximately 1.3% of GDP. Bye IMF goal. In terms of deficit projection, the additional impact for October would be $800 billion, another $700 billion for November and about $460 billion for December. Poor Miguel Pesce, he will work overtime with the machine.
For its part, Bullrich continues with its course of mistakes, helping the official and libertarian campaign. What the experts do see is that her positive image weeks before the PASO was already beginning to decline and then accelerated, coinciding with the phenomenon of non-aggression on the part of Milei. Now it seems like she started to get something of herself back. Faced with this panorama, both the consultants and the operators count the business days that remain before the BCRA until the 22nd and from there to the ballot, if there is one, and the transition until December 10 because without purchasing reserves how will it do? the BCRA to control the gap, which it did not achieve even when buying with the last agricultural dollar. To close, leaving the tsunami of the electoral issue, there is concern at the tables with the news coming from the US about the overheating of the new iPhones, which many acquired last week in raids to Miami, some even hoping to see Messi in basketball court. We will expand.
Source: Ambito
