The population in Germany is aging and companies are dependent on workers from abroad. According to experts, the situation is much more tense in some regions.
According to population researchers, there will be a shortage of workers in eastern Germany in particular in the coming years and decades. Despite immigration, a significant decrease in the number of people of working age is to be expected there, the Federal Statistical Office said.
“The current age structure in East Germany is still characterized by the drop in birth rates after German unification and the relatively strong emigration of the last few decades,” explained Bettina Sommer, an expert on population development at the Wiesbaden authority. “Even with comparatively high levels of immigration, as we are currently observing, the associated losses cannot be compensated for in terms of the future development of the working-age population.”
According to the Federal Office, at the end of 2022 there were 51.4 million people aged 18 to 64 living in Germany, of which 7.2 million were in the eastern German states. Over the next 20 years, their number in East Germany will decline by at least 560,000 (minus 8 percent) to 1.2 million people (minus 16 percent). “By 2070, a decline of at least 830,000 people and a maximum of 2.1 million people in this age group is expected,” said the Federal Office based on a population forecast.
Immigration from abroad necessary
How severe the decline in East Germany actually is depends primarily on how many workers immigrate from abroad. In West Germany, however, researchers expect a comparatively small decline in the number of people of working age by 680,000 or two percent by 2043. One reason: When people immigrate to Germany from abroad, they mostly go to the West German federal states.
However, a long-standing trend was reversed a few years ago: since 2017, according to the Federal Office, more people have been moving from West Germany to East German states than vice versa. These are predominantly people of working age. In 2022, a good three quarters (77 percent) of those who moved from the West to the East were 18 to 64 years old, and a third (33 percent) were in the 18 to 29 year old age group.
Source: Stern
