“In November we see that, as there is a little less pressure due to seasonal issues, it is likely that retail inflation will be closer to 3%”said from the consulting firm Equilibra.
For their part, from EcoGo they estimated that the inflationary rhythm is likely to remain around 3%, “despite the price freeze measures.” The firm forecasts that food consumed at home could rise to 3.8% in November.
“For the first half of November, the price variation is at the same level as last month without a price freeze. We see a flat inflation of 3% for this month ”, remarked for his part Damián Di Pace, director of the consulting firm Focus Market.
These estimates are in line with what was projected by the consulting firms consulted in the Market Expectations Survey (REM) prepared by the Central Bank: they foresee an inflation of 3% for November, while for December the figure would rise to 3.3% and in January it would reach 3.6%.
“If we are sure of anything, it is that inflation is here to stay. The latest figure of 3.5% not only exceeded expectations for that month, but also lowered long-term expectations even more. Core inflation at 3.2% demonstrates the difficulty of a slowdown ”, analyzed Paula Gándara, head portfolio manager of AdCap Asset Management in her latest weekly report.
Freeze effect
Analysts agree that the price freeze may affect, at least partially, the slowdown in inflation during November. In any case, they warn about the pressure of the rise in meat and the difficulty of implementing the program launched by the Government in smaller businesses.
“Obviously, since the first part of the freeze spanned only ten days in October, we are going to see a greater impact of the freeze on inflation. Above all, in large commercial areas and in the food and beverage category. But, anyway, there is still a double temperature. There is a freeze in large stores, added to Care Prices, and in small supermarkets or warehouses, prices continue to rise “, he told Area Of Peace.
“But we do see a slowdown compared to October, which marked 3.5%, and it rises again in December, which seasonally the food and beverages category tends to have high inflation. In fact, the issue of freezing will be tense and some products that are not within that program and that have very strong seasonality due to the Holidays, such as drinks and cuts of meat, sweets and sweets, will surely have some kind of agreement to keep prices frozen ”, added the director of Focus Market.
For its part, Hernán Letcher, CEPA director, told Ámbito: “The price control linked to the almost 1,500 products that Feletti promoted, I think it will work to slow down inflation in that product segment. The problem in November is the increase in meat prices, which is very representative in the formation of the CPI. With which, it is possible to have a high index, but not because of the evolution of prices on mass consumer products to which the measure was applied, but perhaps because of the effect of meat ”.
Precisely, in relation to meat, according to the survey carried out by the consulting firm LCG, the different cuts presented a rise of 3.1% in the last four weeks. The firm pointed out that, “although average inflation fell 0.5 pp last week compared to the previous week, accumulating six weeks downward, meat is pushing upward.”
In this sense, the Government affirmed last week that they closely follow the evolution of meat prices and made it clear that it will look for tools that allow moderating the impact of the rise in the values of the cattle ranch on prices. at the counter, through solutions agreed with the main players in the sector.
Thus, in fact, an agreement was reached with the United Supermarkets Association (ASU) to freeze meat prices in large chains during the long weekend. And this week, according to official sources, the talks will continue “with the aim of reaching a consensual solution that guarantees the stability of the price of meats, thus avoiding shocks in the last part of the year.”
Source From: Ambito
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