Food inflation reached 12.8% during September, according to a report by the consulting firm Focus Market. The survey, which was based on the price of 682 products, reflects that all mass consumption categories presented double-digit increases last month. And the fact is that, in addition to the increase in food mentioned, there is also the increase in personal care (15.3%), cleaning supplies (17.8%) and beverages (11.8%).
“In two monthsthe devaluation of the official wholesale exchange rate in August was devoured by inflation. We maintain a very high price variation despite the anchor of the retail exchange rate, which was set at $365 for two months, and the freezing of fuel, prepaid, public transportation, medicines, electricity and gas rates,” says the director of Focus Market, Damián Di Pace.
According to the reportin the top 10 of the products whose prices increased the most in the ninth month of the year (in relation to August) are: puree (+27.4%), wines (+23.3%), eggs (+22.9%), canned fish (+22.7%), snacks (+21.9%), bleach (+ 21.6%), sweeteners (+21.6%), tea (+21.6%), toilet soap (+21.2%) and salt (+20.8%).
What do other surveys say about inflation?
Another survey, that of the consulting firm Labor Capital and Growth (LCG), headed by Guido Lorenzo, concludes that food increased 0.5% in the last week of September. This translates in a 2.4% deceleration in the rate of increase compared to the previous seven days and marks the lowest weekly inflation rate since the beginning of July.
However, for the consultancy, food prices registered a monthly increase of 8.2% on average in the last four weeks and an increase of 6.8% from end to end in the same period of time.
According to LCG, Only in the fourth week of September, the products that increased the most were fruits (4.2%), vegetables (3.8%) and dairy products and eggs (2.9%).. Thus, of the 10 categories analyzed, they were located above the weekly average (0.5%) and three were positioned below. The consulting firm concludes that although fruits and vegetables increased above the weekly variation, the slowdown in meat (down 2.2%) helped food inflation slow down.
Meanwhile, the Secretariat of Economic Policy released last Friday the “Rubinstein” weekly inflation index (the data released every seven days by the Government) and showed an increase of 1.7% between September 18 and 24while previous records had shown an increase of 2% for the second week of the month and 2.1% in the first.
September price rise: there is consensus that it was double digits
It is worth remembering that, in this context, The consultants estimate that September inflation will be below that of August, which reached 12.4%, but they also expect it to remain in double digits.
The economist Federico Glustein agrees with these forecasts by estimating that the CPI for September will be between 10.2% and 10.7% for September “after registering a slowdown in the last two weeks, although maintaining double monthly figures.”
This estimate coincides with that of other private consulting firms. For example, from the consulting firm Orlando J. Ferreresthe CPI-OJF (GBA) recorded a price increase of 10.7% monthly and estimates that core inflation advanced at a monthly rate of 11.6%, marking an increase of 140% annually. Thus, the overall accumulated It was 99.9% and the core accumulated 103.1% in September.
Private inflation: in a slight deceleration
In general, Private parties agree that during the last days of September there was a slowdown in price dynamics. This is also confirmed by the Libertad y Progreso Foundation, which, in its report, maintains that, “in the month of September, the CPI showed an increase of 11% monthly. The “Food and non-alcoholic beverages” category showed an increase of 10.2%, with an impact of 2.4 pp on the index.
“September is the second consecutive month with double-digit inflation after August. Although we are registering a slowdown, the CPI continues to run at a weekly rate of between 1.5%-2%. Monthly, it is in the order of 9%. This marks an inflation that has once again stabilized one step higher,” says Eugenio Marí, chief economist of the Foundation.
Thus, the LyP data coincides with that of Eco Go, which estimated that the CPI for September will be 11%. Meanwhile, the average variation of the month for the Food and Beverages category is 12.9% for them. The consulting firm maintains that “seasonal prices also contributed to inflation with a record of 13.1%, thus bringing accumulated inflation to 95.2%.”
From Eco Go, they maintain that the prices of food and beverages registered a slight acceleration last month, after the 12.7% registered in August by the consulting firm, “impacting the strong drag left by the increases that occurred after the PASO and the devaluation” of August 14.
The consulting firm concludes that “in September, 88.2% of the food basket showed variations, with 83.4% positive and 4.8% negative. This implies a reduction in the number of products that experienced variations compared to last month when was located at 85.2%”, coinciding with the other forecasts cited in this note.
FinallyCamilo Tiscorniafrom C&T Consultores, estimates that the CPI for September will be in line with forecasts of 11%. The strong monthly variation was greatly influenced by the drag left by the general increase in prices that took place in the second half of August, the economist asserts, after the jump in post-election exchange rates.
“In weekly behavior, a moderation was detected throughout the month, reflecting that there was a specific readjustment to the modification of exchange rates. This helps October start with a lower level of inflation,” adds Tiscornia.
Inflation: people’s “feelings”
Meanwhile, the expectation of citizens regarding the price increase data for September is higher than that of private consultants. According to a survey by the Torcuato Di Tella University, the population expects a price increase of 13.6 in September.% and, for the next twelve months, they predict that they will increase by 99.1%meaning that they will almost double within a year.
Source: Ambito
