In the first call for bids on the 12th there would be $600,000 million left. In election month there is a sharp increase in uncertainty. In the market they warn about a drop in prices and look to the Central Bank.
After the debt exchange in pesos for public sector agencies that the Ministry of Economy faced last week, the majority of what remained to mature this year is in the hands of private investors. The conversion operation for bonds that mature in 2026 totaled $616,000 million, according to official data. Among the private They estimate that for October there are commitments of $1.4 trillion remaining, of which, in the first call for bids on the 12th of this month, $600,000 million would remain.
All of this represents a new challenge in a context of high volatility as the first round of the presidential elections approaches. In the market there is talk of an increase in nervousness. Maybe, The possibility that Javier Milei appears as a potential winner on the 22nd of this month is generating great concern about the weight curve.
“About this last type of assets, the debate of dollarization would have had a profound impact. There was an increase in yields on short bonds with a magnitude and speed comparable to the collapse of the curve in mid-2022,” notes GMA Capital. in its latest report, in which it points out that “the parities of long securities melted to the 70% area.”
A portfolio manager relativized in dialogue with Ambit the idea that there is a scenario like June 2022. At that time the idea had hit home that in the event of a change of government there would be a re-profiling of the maturity of the debt in pesos, which caused a run. “You are not at those levels,” pointed out an operator, who nevertheless considers that There is a risky situation and it links it to the interventions of the Central Bank.
What would be happening, he explained, is that after the tenders carried out by the Treasury, the BCRA adds 200 basis points of return on market values with its interventions. That would be causing prices to go down and the potential genuine demand from private investors to be held back while waiting for the entity to validate a higher performance than the previous one in the next round. “We believe that this could be cut if the BCRA puts a floor,” said a market source. During the day the version circulated that the Central would have intervened strongly to maintain the parities. It would be about $200,000 million.
Faced with this, andOn Thursday the 12th, the Economy has to go out and look for some $600,000 million and on the 27th another $800,000, although the Treasury Palace still needs to close the final number. Many of the remaining bonds have an adjustment clause and therefore their value is defined almost instantly. Then in November there would be another $1.1 trillion and in December only about $70,000 million. We must take into account the very short-term placements that are carried out in each call destined for common funds.
Adcap Grupo Financiero points out that bonds in pesos operate at “distress levels, with the curve completely inverted.” “Last week the net redemptions continued in the CER, dollar linked and T+1 funds. There is a migration of flows towards conservative positions,” he says in his latest report. The report indicates that “The stressful situation in the market is controlled by the BCRA, which this time is intervening.”
Source: Ambito
