Despite the high uncertainty of these days, it is estimated that the BCRA will continue with the rate at 118% annually. In the peso market there was a little more calm after a couple of worrying days.
Since the Central Bank proposed its last modification of the monetary policy reference rate, it has left it still. Even after the August devaluation that impacted a sharp increase in inflation, the entity that directs Miguel Pesce has not decided to accompany that movement. In the building on Reconquista Street it is thought that the CPI data for September would be slightly better than that of August (12.4%) and that in October it would return to single digits and that is why there was no rush to follow the trend. However, the market expects that a new correction in the BCRA rate could occur after an eventual runoff in the presidential elections..
“We hope that the entity raises its reference rate, although we understand that this would take place closer to the month of November or December,” maintains the consulting firm LCG, directed by economist Guido Lorenzo
As highlighted, the BCRA maintains its monetary policy rate at 118% annual nominal, consistent with 209.5% annual effective. which represents 9.8% monthly. In this way, the fixed terms of human persons for up to $30 million replicate this performance. Although in the medium term it may be a positive real rate, in the short term it does not exceed the inflation outlook, which becomes crucial given that placements are agreed upon for 30 days. In the case of the BADLAR rate, for a fixed term of more than 1 million pesos, the monthly rate is 9.4%.
Treasury Debt
The situation of pre-electoral uncertainty It is affecting the instruments issued by the government in a worrying way, operators agree. The fixed rate bills that mature this month were quoted in September at 91%, which is equivalent to a real 10.5%. On the other hand, CER-adjustable bills yield inflation of more than 1.4%.
While, CER debt securities, which had partially recovered after the primary elections, closed September with price falls between 6.5% and 28.9%,. Regarding the dollar linked debt, the bonds decreased between 10.3% and 12.9%, while the Duals had decreases that were around 6.8% and 8.3%
The financial analyst Christian Butler I consider that The secondary peso market had entered a state of high concern on Tuesday. But in business on Wednesday there was already a little more calm. “It was a little better, but these days it was more than worrying. There was a run against assets in pesos. The MEP dollar touched $900 and there are still 3 weeks until the elections and two months to hand over power, which is worrying,” he said.
The Central Bank It had to go out in the last two rounds to support prices with strong interventions, which also raises a higher floor for the usual monthly tenders carried out by the Treasury. The economic authorities are going to have to raise rates again to obtain the necessary funding.
Source: Ambito
