He National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) will announce the next Consumer Price Index (CPI) September, in what will be the last data that will be disclosed before the general elections on October 22 and which according to private estimates would be above double digits for the second consecutive month.
The devaluation of teaofficial exchange rate and the subsequent transfer to prices after the results of the Open, Simultaneous and Mandatory Primary elections (PASO) put pressure on inflation in August, which climbed to 12.4%, being the highest measurement since 1991.
Having occurred in the second half of the eighth month of the year, it is expected that the impact will also be felt considerably in September.
Inflation in CABA: the mark before the official data
At the end of last week the official indicator of the inflation in the City of Buenos Aires, which serves as a preview of the national data, and showed an acceleration last month, reaching 12%, 1.6 points above the 10.4% in August, with a strong impact on foods whose increase was 14.1%, according to the Buenos Aires Statistics Directorate.
He CABA index revealed that the accumulated inflation in said territory since January is 101.3%, while the interannual rate rose to 140.9%.
On the private estimates side, the consulting firm Freedom and Progress (LyP)reflected that the CPI showed an increase of 11% monthly, while the interannual variation amounted to 134.6%, the highest value since August 1991 (144.4%).
The firm’s specialists highlighted that part of the result was due to the “carry-over effect” left by the previous month driven by the post-STEP “devaluation shock” and stressed that “The accumulated inflation in the first nine months of the year is 100 percent ; is the highest accumulated since the hyperinflation of 1990”, remembering that “within the last decade, the rhighest cumulative records for the first nine months of the year they were 66.1% in 2022 and 37.7% in 2019″.
Eugenio Marí, chief economist of the Libertad y Progreso Foundation, pointed out that “September is the second consecutive month with double-digit inflation.”
“Although we registered a slowdown, the CPI continues to run at a weekly rate of between 1.5%-2.0%; what monthly is in the order of 9%. This marks an inflation that has stabilized again one step higher,” he added.
The survey of retail prices of the S&T consulting presented a monthly increase of 11% in September, after 11.5 percent in August.
The increase exhibited was explained as a result of “the strong monthly variation was greatly influenced by the drag left by the generalized price increase that took place in the second half of August, after the jump in post-election exchange rates.”
While, the CPI for the GBA of Orlando Ferreres showed an increase of 10.7% in September and they specified that “in terms of the main items, Leisure, Food and beverages and Health led the increases of the month, registering monthly increases of 17.4%, 12.1% and 10. 1% respectively, followed by Home Equipment and Operation and Clothing, which presented a variation of 8.3%.”
In the final stretch facing the general electionswhen there are exactly 10 days left until Argentines go to the polls to elect the next president, INDEC will reveal this Thursday, October 12, new inflation data, the issue that most worries citizens.
Source: Ambito
