Within days of one presidential election key and a possible change of course in the economy, the country’s main economists provide an overview of what is expected for this week.
On October 22 they will measure their strength Javier Milei, who fights for dollarization and the elimination of the central bank, the current Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, who defends the peso, and Patricia Bullrich, who points to bimonetization, among the main references.
A growing inflation, constant devaluation, a high fiscal deficit, reduced reserves in the central bank (BCRA) and an increase in poverty They make the outlook for the coming months complex.
On Thursday, the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) will publish the inflation data for September, and on Friday there will be no financial activity due to a holiday for tourist purposes.
“Finally he woke up dollar. It’s not that he was asleep, but he was making himself wait for something that was predictable. If one looks at the price of parallel dollars In historical perspective, it would seem that they are expensive and do not have much more to go up,” economist Martin Kalos said in radio statements.
“What you have to understand is what is the logic behind dollarizing, which is not just that of other moments of dollarizing just in case because I don’t know what economic policy could come with a next government, in this one there is something different which is the threat of dollarization by a candidate who has concrete chances,” he said.
“The financial dollars at $900 They are a symptom of taking cover against the ielectoral certainty, with an increasingly distorted macroeconomy. In moments of panic dollar has no roofwhere the price depends on the relative supply that does not always obey a long-term reading,” said economist Roberto Geretto.
Dollar and investments: the search for coverage prior to the general elections
The recent improvement of Stock market was driven by “the search for refuges of value in the face of the devaluation of the peso,” estimated VatNet Financial Research.
“The electoral uncertainty remains high, while the BCRA continued to provide liquidity to the debt market in pesos. Likewise, the declining trend in real terms of fixed terms as a result of negative real rates boosts both the dollar and inflation,” said Delphos Investment.
The Economist Salvador Vitelli estimated that on Friday reserves for 60 million dollars were sold to intervene in the financial dollar.
“Investors prioritize not only coverage in this delicate stage but also defensive strategies waiting for key definitions,” said economist Gustavo Ber. “The dollar bonds continue to show a downward trend, in a scenario marked by political uncertainty (before…) doubts about the domestic economy in the face of three-digit inflation estimated for this year and strong fiscal spending that erodes the BCRA’s limited reserves “said Research for Trades.
Source: Ambito
