Market analysts estimated that the inflation of October would be 9.5%, based on the results of the Survey of Expectations (REM) which on a monthly basis is carried out by the Central bank.
If the number projected by the market for the tenth month of the current year is confirmed, the rise in consumer price index (CPI) would be 3.2 percentage points below the 12.7% registered in September.
While, For all of 2023, analysts predict inflation of 180.7% year-on-year and 187.5% for the core CPI.
For September, the median of the estimates of those who participated in the survey REM suggested a inflation of 11.7% monthly, one point below the 12.7% reported this afternoon by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Indec).
Deceleration of inflation in October
Looking ahead to October, the consultants and banks Private sector projects a slowdown of 3.2 percentage points in the CPI to reach 9.5%.
The downward diagnosis is in line with what was reported today by the Secretariat of Economic Policywhich estimates a price scenario of around 7.5% for the tenth month of the year.
On the other hand, analysts expect a stable exchange rate in October, around $350 per dollar, as announced by the Government after the recalibration of last August 14.
Regarding the interest rate, specialists said that they expect a gradual adjustment in the coming months, so that the BADLAR interest rate (monthly effective fixed-term rate) will be 9.4% monthly in October, equivalent to a annual nominal rate (TNA) of 114.1%.
ministry of economy treasury
Ignacio Petunchi
GDP fall
REM participants now expect a GDP fall of around 2.8% for this yearperformance largely influenced by the impact of drought.
The outlook improves by 0.14 pp compared to the previous survey and is concentrated in the third quarter, a period for which participants reduced their outlook for quarterly GDP contraction without seasonality by 1 pp.
Regarding unemployment, private consultants estimated that in the third quarter of 2023 there would have been a level of 6.9% of the Economically Active Population, an improvement of 0.5 pp compared to the previous survey.
Lastly, regarding the value of the exports (FOB) specialists estimated an amount for 2023 of US$68,363 million and a total of $73,204 million for imports (CIF). Thus, REM participants contemplate, for the entire year, a FOB-CIF trade balance in deficit of US$ 4,841 million.
To configure the REM, The BCRA considered forecasts from 36 participants, including 24 local and international consulting firms and research centers and 12 Argentine financial entities.
Source: Ambito
