In the last week, $680,000 million entered the FCI. As an example of the doubts about the economic plan as of December 11, the CCL is 81% more expensive than after the 2019 PASO.
A shorter week than usual begins this Tuesday due to the extra long weekend, within a framework of high uncertainty in the markets regarding the presidential elections on Sunday, October 22. In recent days, although most operators assume that the leader of Libertad Avanza, Javier Milei, could obtain more votes in a first round, the reality is that the differences in the polls are so limited that no scenario could be ruled out. Is that why the dollar Cash with Settlement (CCL) that companies use to send money out of the country is located at a value that exceeds by 81% the equivalent in constant currency of what it had after the 2019 PASO.
The data corresponds to the latest situation report from the Institute of Economic Research for the Argentine and Latin American Reality (IERAL), the business school of the Mediterranean Foundation. Such a difference, says the report, is not only explained because, in the event of Milei’s eventual victory, he intends to dollarize the economy without having dollars. Furthermore, they point out that it has to do with the fact that, unlike four years ago, Argentina has a fiscal and current account deficit. Adding to the derailment of macroeconomic conditions is a absolute uncertainty about the next economic plan.
To all this, we will have to see if the expressions of some of the economists from the libertarian ranks have any impact this week, Carlos Rodríguez, who on his social networks assured that the Central Bank should not have “paid liabilities,” That is, the entity would not have to pay a fee for the Leliqs, which are the counterpart to the banking system’s fixed-term deposits. It could be taken to be an equivalent of “taking out the weights” of the entities.
The operators, then, look at how the Common Investment Funds are behaving (FCI). Between October 4 and 11, they received funds for $680,917 million. They currently manage $16 billion. Of that money, very little went to the money markets, only $41 million, unlike previous days. Thickness$371,000 million, entered the funds that manage assets tied to the dollar. That is, there is a preference for coverage. The period in which Sergio Massa had said that the official price would be kept at $350 is ending. After next Sunday at any time, they consider, there may be another “discreet jump” like the one on August 14. According to market sources, Some understand that this could occur in December. The other element that they assure is that It is not expected that there will be a compulsive rescheduling of the debt in pesos. There would be a consensus that whoever wins, the debt roll over will continue.
Meanwhile, this Tuesday the Treasury Palace will launch the second round of bidding last Thursday, in which the level of debt renewal was 106%, with maturities of $750,000 million. The Secretary of Finance, Eduardo Setti, displayed a good menu of dollarized instruments, in line with the demand of secondary markets in recent days. More than 75% of what was placed in the first call was taken by this type of bonds, so he hopes that the entities of the Market Makers group will go for a larger portion.
Source: Ambito
