“All exchange runs have a turning point, because it becomes so evident that the path forks and two things can happen: either the regulator (Government) appears or the regulator does not appear and the end is uncertain. This bullfight does not have that turning point, because whoever can become president says that he is going to destroy the peso.” This is how the financial analyst Leandro Ziccarelli contextualizes the dynamics of last week, which took the blue dollar above $1000, the cash with liquid to $960 and the MEP to $870. As a result, the Central Bank accumulated a weekly loss of US$540 million. That is why he considers the joint role of the Economy with that of the BCRA, AFIP, CUSTOMS AND CNV to be positive, where The State showed itself as a “regulator” by imposing new restrictions on financial dollars and mounting operations that left the City of Porteña desolate.
With four days left until the general elections, it doubled the level of sales it had shown in the week before the PASO elections, that is, US$221 million. In any case, the BCRA is looking for a better heading within the framework of expanding the benefits of the Export Incentive Program (PIE) to numerous sectors, such as SMEs, Vaca Muerta, mining, fishing and automotive.
In addition, President Alberto Fernández is expected to return from his time in China with the activation of the second tranche of the swap with the Asian country, in theory available from Wednesday. On the other hand, on October 24, the National Communications Agency (ENACOM) hopes to auction the radio spectrum frequencies to provide communication services. 5Gwith which it seeks income of US$1,050 million.
However, For Zicarelli, stabilizing the market is not limited to intervention, but also awaits a political response from the libertarian candidate that has a high probability of entering the runoff. “The dollar is not going down just by selling bonds and reserves, the problem is more serious. How much are the pesos worth if Milei wins? On the 23rd they will have to put a ceiling on the dollar,” says the analyst. This is because, contrary to the proposition of Bull Market, the AlyC founded by Daniel Marra, father of Ramiro, the candidate for head of the Buenos Aires government, “there is no hyper-controlled one, it must be avoided, that is why the Government has to play as a regulator and intervener.” “One more declaration can generate disorder in the Government that can negatively impact the Milei Government itself,” Ziccarelli warned.
Different is the look of Gabriel Caamaño, member of the consulting firm Ledesma, who understands that the Government “no longer has the capacity to anchor or calm” the market, because “the last sprint of fiscal responsibility burned what little credibility it could have left.” In turn, he assures that control operations generate paralysis in the market or even greater demand in other segments. However, he insists on need for “cooperation, transition or some type of agreement” between Massa and Mileisince, “if there is no possibility of agreement and whoever wins is not the ruling party, an attempt will be made the hard way to get the outgoing Government to assume part of the adjustment of the imbalances.”
Finally, Claudio Loser, former IMF official, the Government will be able to keep the parallel exchange rate controlled due to police control, but with the blue dollar above $1000, “the bullfight is recognized and if it rose $100 more, it would not affect the general perception.” . In turn, he believes that, if Milei wins the elections, she “will not put a ceiling on the dollar,” but he fears that the first few days afterward “will be chaotic in the exchange market.” Meanwhile, there are also doubts about the control of the official dollar. Salvador Vitelli, head of Research at Romano Group, warned last week that the market is discounting that the exchange rate until December would increase 170%.
Source: Ambito
