Most gurus estimate that the correction will be in November and December. This is demonstrated by the dollar futures market. The futures market foresees a 25% devaluation until the end of October, but it will most likely occur in November and December. There a devaluation of 116% accumulates, in three months 178% and in four months 218%. We are talking that by August the devaluation of the official dollar could reach 300%.
Added to this is JPMorgan who also recently shared what his dollar forecast is until June of next year. As of December, the firm estimates that the official dollar will be at $750, in March 2024 at $1,100 and $1,350 in June.
Dollar: what the REM expects
The analysts consulted by the Central Bank (BCRA) They anticipate a new devaluation and an acceleration of inflation before the end of the year. For the official exchange rate, they expect it to close 2023 at $530 per dollar, while for prices they anticipate that they will mark a new peak of 13.8% in December, taking the accumulated inflation of 2023 to the area of 187%.
This was reflected in the last Survey of Market Expectations (REM) published by the Central Bank. In that monthly survey, published last week by the Argentine monetary authority, private analysts adjusted upwards their forecasts for both the official price of the dollar and inflation.
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Telam
The acceleration of inflation for analysts will cause another devaluation jump before the end of the year. According to the median of estimates, the official wholesale dollar would close 2023 at $530, 51% above current levels. This additional 33% devaluation that the Argentine peso would suffer before the end of the year would push prices even further.
For whom it is participated in the REM, The weight drop won’t stop there. According to estimates, the official wholesale dollar would climb to almost $670 by January 2024, above $731 for February and $776 for March.
For the next 12 months, meanwhile, andThe official exchange rate would reach $1,074, which implies that the peso could devalue even more by 67% in that period.
And what is expected with the blue dollar?
The blue dollar barely stopped its bullish rally by closing again at $1,010. With the exchange rate gap flirting with 190%, the market perceives the race towards the general elections as a game of batons, where the objective is to reach each station without too many setbacks. In dialogue with Ámbito, economic analysts understand that the financial panorama “is devoid of expectations”, but that the Dolar blue has exceeded one thousand pesos refers to a panic quote.
“It is clear that the context is what allows this exchange rate run to occur,” he maintains. Martin Kalos, director of EPyCa Consultores. For the economist, adding to the international strengthening of the dollar in the last three months is the excess of pesos, low reserves and the electoral context with very dissimilar economic policy proposals, “including extreme dollarization”, as reasons that explained the panorama prior to the statements of Javier Milei linked to the dismantling of fixed terms in banks.
The same line holds Personal Portfolio Investments (PPI) when mentioning that the accumulated rise of the CCL (which yesterday closed at $944) in the last 16 rounds reached 32.2%: “With a dollarization objected by the market as a base scenario, these values could be much lower than the of conversion or rescue of the pesos. That is what the market has on the horizon and acts accordingly”.
Under this panorama, the head of Strategy at GMA Capital, Nery Persichini, ensures that the market is orphaned of anchors for expectations. For the economist, the Government’s tools to stabilize already have little traction because, given the results of the PASO, companies and investors pay more attention to what the opposition says. “The drivers of this dollar sprint now escape the fundamentals and are more related to panic”, he analyzed.
Source: Ambito
