He Central Bank (BCRA) arranged increase the interest rate reference of the traditional fixed term and took her from 118% to the 133% previous annual. Meanwhile, the Annual Nominal Rate (TNA) reached 253%. The decision came after the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) spread the september inflationwhich was located around the 12.7%(slightly above 12.4% in August).
This way, The monetary authority raised the interest rate by 15 percentage points (or 1,500 basis points). From this measure, what the BCRA is to encourage savers to leave their pesos in Fixed deadlines and alleviate the pressure on the blue dollarwhich closed the week above $1,000, but this Wednesday it drops to $930, just four days before the presidential elections.
Fixed term vs. inflation: how much is the monthly return?
Thus, the traditional fixed term began to have a monthly effective yield (the TEM) 11%closest to the data of September inflation (12.7%) that he 9.7% that was previously offered.
Previously, in August of this year, to be more precise, after the post-STEP devaluation of 20% that the Government implemented, the monetary authority applied a rate increase of 21 percentage points and established the yield of the term traditional fixed and the Leliq in 118% (for those that are 28 days).
The interest rate policy of the central bank seeks to bring returns to real positive territory on investments in local currency. And, although it is true that 11% of TEM does not beat the inflation Still, it should be noted that with this new adjustment The monetary authority shows willingness to “seek that the performance of the fixed term does not lag so far behind the consumer price index”explained an expert source on the subject.
Fixed term vs. inflation: in annual terms, which wins the race?
Also, since the last Survey of Market Expectations (REM) of the BCRA projected the 2023 annual inflation at 180.7% While the TNA is 253%. In this way, in annual terms the rate would be positive, despite the fact that in the monthly comparison (11% vs. 12.7%) it is almost two percentage points below the CPI.
However, according to the economist from Epyca Consultores Joel Lupieri to Ambit “the yield of the fixed term seems to fall somewhat short”, since the last two CPIs were more than 12% while the monthly rate is 11%, therefore, “beyond the attractiveness of the new nominal rateit is important to note that we are at an inflection point in economic matters, with inflationary expectations adjusting upwards”, which takes away some of the shine.
Alejandro Bianchi, founder of AsesorDeInversiones.com, points out in the same sense when he points out that “we are in a point at which the market sees the possibility of dollarization as imminentwith which, despite the strong rise in rates, the existing level of monetary liabilities generates a greater expectation of inflation and an insensitivity to the rate on the part of the saver who seeks to dollarize or stay in investment assets.
Fixed term: how much do I earn if I invest $100,000 in 30 days?
However, for the small saver, who tends to bet on a fixed term as an investment strategy, due to the simplicity of using this instrument and the predictability it offers, given that the rate is regulated and fixed throughout the entire period. the month, at least, is an investment that can be interesting.
And, for example, if a person makes a fixed term by 30 days with $100,000at the end of the term You will receive around $10,931.51, which will be added to the initial capital, so at the end of the month you will have about $10,931.51 in your account. $110,931.51.
It is an interesting gain, although it does not beat inflation, especially if we take into account, on the other hand, that those who bet on the blue dollar, another traditional refuge for small and medium savers, in recent days seem to have lost against inflation and the fixed term.
This illegal exchange rate fell 13.3% since it reached its maximum intraday value of $1,050 a week ago and, in the last three days, it has accumulated a drop of almost 10%, which is equivalent to a drop of $105, and is trading , well, $905.
Source: Ambito
