This Friday, the Treasury will publish the “cash basis” fiscal result, which the IMF monitors. Private consultants estimate an expansion of the deficit.
According to the latest report of the Congressional Budget Office (OPC) primary spending accrued in September fell 3.2% in real terms thus casting doubt on the idea that there is an overflow of it. Although the data must be taken with a grain of salt, because for the Ministry of Economy what counts is the cash basis, the reality is that it indicates that, even in the current context, The head of the Palacio de Hacienda tries to be as careful as possible.
Last month, the National Public Administration (APN) generated expenses of $3.3 billion, which marked a nominal increase of 130.7%, below the inflation of the previous 12 months.
This Friday, the Treasury Palace will announce the numbers of the National Public Sector (SPN) on a cash basis, which is what is used to measure commitments to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). “Floating debt” enters the final equation, that is, postponing payments, which has been a tool that the Government has been playing with this year. In November there should be a new review of the agreement with the Fund and that variable has probably increased. The problem for Massa this year has been the slide in income that ended up disrupting the plan he had to get to the elections.
Last month, the earned income recorded by the OPC totaled $2.7 trillion, which implied a real decline of 14.1%. This determined that the difference between current expenses and income, without taking into account interest, gave a negative result of $573,960 million, which marked a real 152% increase in the deficit compared to the same month last year.
The market will be very attentive to this aspect of the economy. With the presidential elections resolved this Sunday, Operators are beginning to imagine what the fiscal scenario in which the next administration will have to act will be. “It is impossible to find a solution that does not come from an improvement in Argentina’s reputation internationally, this would imply that the country goes from a fiscal deficit of 4.3% of GDP to a fiscal surplus,” says the consultant. Salvador Distéfano in its latest report. Distéfano believes that in this way “the Treasury would not require more financing, therefore, there would be no assistance from the Central Bank, and currency would no longer be issued.”
The consulting firm LCG maintains in this regard that “a marked deterioration in the primary result is expected in relation to what happened in August, both due to the decrease in income and the intensification of spending.” “In September, the collection destined to the Nation fell 9% annually measured in real terms as a result of the collapse of export duties,” indicated the consultancy. The report maintains that income could reflect “a real annual decline of 13%, which would contrast with a real annual expansion of spending of 1%.” “In total, we project a primary deficit of $352,000 million for the month and we maintain our estimate of an accumulated red around 3% of GDP for this year,” the study concludes.
Source: Ambito
