With the first results, Sergio Massa of Unión por la Patria and Javier Milei of La Libertad Avanza will define in a runoff who will be the next president.
With more than 70% of the tables scrutinized, Sergio Massa won the general elections by 35.9% compared to Javier Milei of La Libertad Avanza who is in second place with 30.5%. With this scenario, both candidates will enter the runoff and Patricia Bullrich from Together for Change with 23.6% was left out. Ámbito set out to collect the latest projections about what could happen on Monday with Argentine assets and the different exchange rates of the dollar.
Previously, from FyMA, they had anticipated this Massa-Milei result in the second round. In this regard, they anticipated that “in this case we hope a blue dollar stressed as in recent weeks” but a official dollar returning to the crawling peg without sudden devaluation.
“The agreement with the IMF says from November 15 (there would be crawling peg) at 3% monthly. There is artillery: soy dollar, Chinese swap and SUPER-CEPO. Important: it is different from the post-STEP, where Massa had to pay China no matter what, with money from the IMF. The exit of the pesos and the expectation of the exchange gap will depend on the speech of Milei and the super-CEPO. The devaluation only comes in December“, they projected.
For their part, from Anker Latin America, they warned “in this scenario we hope that the current situation is prolonged without coordinationwith Massa further deteriorating the inheritance in fiscal and exchange terms and Milei without incentives to give greater details about its program.”
In turn, Consultant 1816 had anticipated that “if Massa reaches the runoff, he will remain the official dollar at 350, in line with what Rubinstein and Setti ratified in the last hours. “The Government will exhaust all avenues to reach November.”
From this consultancy they announced that The activation of the second tranche of the swap with China would allow the BCRA to have additional foreign currency liquidity of US$5.2 billion. “Between October 22 and December 10 there are 33 wheels that could be used at a rate of US$158 million per day,” they said.
For its part, for Invest in the Stock Market (IEB) A Milei-Massa runoff is not the same as a second round with Patricia Bullrich of Together for Change, since in this way “the minister-candidate has incentives to continue with the policies he has been implementing and has incentives to maintain the status-quo.”
Source: Ambito
