It is estimated that Massa’s victory in the first round takes away Milei’s chances. Some operators believe that in the medium term there is a better outlook for CER bonds.
The triumph of Minister Sergio Massa in the first round of the 2023 presidential elections removed a dollarization scenario for the momentas proposed by the leader of Libertad Avanza, Javier Milei, market analysts agreed financial experts, who estimate that this will be reflected in the prices of Argentine assets.
The director of Adcap Grupo Financiero, Javier Timerman, described it as “positive” the result of the elections. “I think that, based on the result The uncertainty of Milei winning the first round or being the most voted candidate is over,” he said. Timerman and assured that “that is positive for all local assets.” In the last weeks The market began to hedge against a potential hyperinflation scenario based on statements by the opposition leaderwho warned the public to withdraw their funds from the banks and that the rise in the price of the currency would make their economic program easier.
In that sense, Timerman added that “the peace of mind that will come from the fact that Milei does not have the presidency assured will compensate for the preference that the market had for Patricia Bullrich.”although in recent weeks I had assumed that I was out of this election.” The candidate who came in third place and with no chance of reaching the first magistracy in November was the one who best matched the expectations of the operators.
The IAE, the business school of the Austral University, pointed out in this regard that if there were no disruptive statements from the candidates who arrived at the runoff, “Exchange tensions should ease in the short term,” although he warns that “in an economy without anchors or program, generalized lack of coordination can have unexpected effects.” “There will be twenty business days where the intensity of the imbalances can be highlighted or begin to be nuanced, the latter being a low probability scenario,” indicated the IAE.
For its part, the brokerage company Portfolio Personal Inversiones (PPI) points out that “The electoral result proposes a more constructive climate for debt in pesos, reducing the possibility of a scenario of uncontrolled nominality and increasing the probability of payment by the margin.” “This context should be relatively positive for CER-adjustable securities, that they could continue with the recovery that they exhibited in the last rounds before the general elections,” says the entity.
With these perspectives, Next Friday, October 27, the Treasury Palace will carry out the second debt tender in pesos of the month for a total of $550,000 million. In the first of the calls prior to Sunday’s elections, the Government was able to obtain some $817,000 million with a roll over level of just over 106%. The level of renewal is significantly lower than in previous weeks, which denotes the high level of uncertainty that existed. In the first call, more than 90% of what was placed was through linked and dual dollar instruments. But in recent days the inflation-adjusted debt has regained its shine, so it is not ruled out that the Treasury includes some CER bond to expand the offer.
Source: Ambito
