It is that, according to analysts, to inertia of the previous months was added in recent weeks to the volatility of the alternative exchange ratesa greater demand in different assets due to the “coverage” effect in the run-up to the elections last Sunday and “preventive increases” in some sectors.
On the other hand, the food item may put upward pressure again, especially from possible increases in the beefafter increases in the price of the property were recorded in recent weeks.
“What we are waiting for is inflation with a floor of 12%“, he pointed out to Ambit Claudio Caprarulo, director of the consulting firm Analytica, who explained: “Although the month has not yet closed, this week and the remaining days of next are going to be very important. On the one hand, “There is an inertia that is explained by an economy that in the two months prior to October had an average of just over 12%.”
“On the other hand, in October there were strong increases in parallel dollars. Also very strong hedging situations that were transferred to prices“, with respect to the scenario that was expected for this Sunday, when many polls showed Javier Milei as the candidate with the highest number of votes, and even some analysts said that he could win in the first round,” the economist stressed.
This whole scenario of uncertainty, Caprarulo remarked, “translated into these very aggressive hedging positions, with respect to parallel dollars and also preventive increases that we saw in different chains, especially in the last week”. “And in some cases, there was even a slowdown in sales by speculating on what could happen on Monday,” he noted.
“With data up to the third week, that is, up to Before the result of the general elections, our CPI measurement aimed to be in the range 11.9%-12.4%“, explained Eugenio Marí, Chief Economist of the Libertad y Progreso Foundation, who added: “However, the electoral result was bad for expectations in the sense that it left the continuity of this economic policy in the race. The reaction of the markets, with bonds and the Merval falling, and the country risk rising, makes it clear to us that there is no basis for there to be a sustainability or a recovery in the demand for pesos.”
Food and the impact of meat
For his part, as he remarked Hernan Letcherdirector of CEPA, maintained that “there are, in general terms, a more moderate weekly inflation process than that observed especially at the beginning of Septemberwhen the levels were really very high.”
In any case, he noted: “One of the issues to pay attention to is how the price of beef evolves over the counter.. Last month, for the first time in recent years, it had a very particular characteristic: the price at the treasury dropped – on average 1% – and rose at the counter by almost 20%.”
“In October, the treasury rose again, so the question is whether last month’s increase in the counter discounted the increase in treasury this month, or if it will go up again. And, since beef has a lot of impact on the CPI, its behavior can determine whether an additional point and a half or two points are added to inflation, or if it does not have them,” Letcher stressed.
Precisely, according to the survey of food and drinks what the consultant does LCGin the third week meats rose 5.4%, pushing the index to a weekly rise of 3.9%which represented an acceleration of 2.2 pp compared to the previous week.
While, from Eco Go they predicted an increase of 11.2% for this month in food consumed at homeafter they climbed 3.5% during the second week of October.
Source: Ambito
